TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Wicked" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$644,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$215,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $644,269 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c54,999$205 inLost-$205456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-78.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb72…68b8backed Yes1c24,400$122 inLost-$12220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes1c16,979$102 inLost-$101.851799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c6e…5c3dbacked Yes1c12,619$69 inLost-$69.0230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de2…feabbacked Yes3c8,744$233 inLost-$233.31922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+79.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x772a…c9f3backed Yes3c8,049$220 inLost-$220.4330%0 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1424…13bbbacked Yes1c7,196$36 inLost-$35.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8d…d63cbacked Yes1c6,796$91 inLost-$91.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c6,534$42 inLost-$41.881455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e1…ef66backed Yes1c6,188$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x53b0…1bbdbacked Yes0c5,059$20 inLost-$20.2440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes3c4,964$142 inLost-$142.436622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6511…400cbacked Yes1c4,537$50 inLost-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef19…91e7backed Yes1c4,498$40 inLost-$39.821428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-40.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Yes1c3,961$30 inLost-$30.375529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes2c3,863$93 inLost-$92.727135.2%25 W · 46 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes1c3,161$35 inLost-$35744.1%3 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes2c3,104$55 inLost-$55.1948236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c2,850$22 inLost-$22.22462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes1c2,833$36 inLost-$35.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes1c2,569$20 inLost-$20.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f6…bc3cbacked Yes1c2,400$12 inLost-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7814…5ecebacked Yes1c2,117$20 inLost-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fab…4ce9backed Yes1c2,009$11 inLost-$11.35714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb482…fbc7backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b83…905ebacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes1c1,502$20 inLost-$20.2710232.4%33 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes2c1,381$31 inLost-$30.945411.1%6 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+54.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes2c906.48$14 inLost-$13.9414425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c894.6$11 inLost-$11.3167232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…bf70backed Yes1c778.06$10 inLost-$10.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes2c726$14 inLost-$13.79922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x993d…09e9backed Yes3c558.28$19 inLost-$18.53520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-63.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes2c500$10 inLost-$103920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1581…6cadbacked Yes5c387.48$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff21…f489backed Yes3c363$12 inLost-$11.572524%6 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5290…487dbacked Yes3c318.1$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.