Movies · resolved market
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbfaca77c2fae07c079eb7633862717a21c3ac9f1ee2b22ba4c98ccb5bedab5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $444,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $444,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 3c | 18,615$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.37 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215c…bdfbbacked Yes | 0c | 16,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 12,434$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.18 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 11,384$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 9,146$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 5c | 8,071$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.54 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,064$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4595…79a7backed Yes | 1c | 6,149$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 5,968$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.31 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd58e…2dbfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,528$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 1c | 5,376$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 1c | 4,861$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 2c | 3,862$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,704$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 9c | 3,700$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.36 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…d5a1backed Yes | 1c | 3,410$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d04…8859backed Yes | 9c | 3,200$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…4ce9backed Yes | 0c | 2,900$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,750$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…4c47backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…b5a6backed Yes | 0c | 2,400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2d…f033backed Yes | 10c | 2,378$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 2c | 2,244$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…6717backed Yes | 1c | 2,170$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…d684backed Yes | 0c | 2,098$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f6…bc3cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…5ecebacked Yes | 6c | 1,801$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8360…802cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,564$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 9c | 1,392$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…3237backed Yes | 1c | 1,130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,042$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 3c | 949.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a2…4123backed Yes | 5c | 940.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 5c | 900$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…51b7backed Yes | 19c | 864.7$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 4c | 709.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 2c | 683$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d97…d42cbacked Yes | 12c | 680.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 616.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 15c | 600$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 429.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed Yes | 10c | 410$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 77c | 395$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.85 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 13c | 371.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 18c | 363$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 14c | 353.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 14c | 319.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 5c | 269$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…55cbbacked Yes | 9c | 224$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cef…22f3backed Yes | 11c | 219$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 9c | 217.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc48b…2413backed Yes | 17c | 201.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 13c | 175$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 8c | 169.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…cb26backed Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 148.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…76ecbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 15c | 115.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…c4abbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2577…b72dbacked Yes | 15c | 76.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…3ef3backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7090…0414backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 79c | 23.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "A Real Pain" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Challengers" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nickel Boys" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nosferatu" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "September" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Sing Sing" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Wicked" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.