Movies · resolved market
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda7eb9bc4dbe9b8324785e5590c0cc30f8785e1a76a43a3a06bc171f96d62524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $584,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $497,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $584,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 596 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed No | 57c | 29,272$16,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,511.39 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Yes | 22c | 22,558$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 31c | 21,342$6,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,671.26 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 20,446$2,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,341.4 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 12c | 16,214$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868.16 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 21c | 14,887$3,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,063.28 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 8c | 14,659$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.42 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked No | 56c | 14,218$7,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,304.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 13c | 13,847$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.02 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 40c | 13,152$5,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,202.34 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 47c | 9,410$4,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,445.9 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 8,388$5,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,585.22 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 11c | 8,382$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.69 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8f…b7fdbacked Yes | 21c | 8,015$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 57c | 7,314$4,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,136.79 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 30c | 6,887$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.55 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 46c | 6,800$3,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,102.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 38c | 6,773$2,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,564.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 40c | 6,397$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565.39 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 31c | 6,129$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.02 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes | 18c | 5,955$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.2 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 17c | 5,573$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 53c | 5,489$2,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,560.57 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f0…eb46backed Yes | 19c | 5,271$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 9c | 4,946$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.89 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 10c | 4,857$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.57 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 26c | 4,470$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…2b31backed Yes | 14c | 4,283$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 13c | 4,000$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.54 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2d…f033backed Yes | 53c | 3,940$2,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,071.69 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 10c | 3,835$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 44c | 3,721$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.92 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 44c | 2,977$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 11c | 2,905$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.77 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 14c | 2,609$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.84 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 55c | 2,416$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.67 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…2006backed Yes | 12c | 2,397$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,334$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.39 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 28c | 2,295$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.26 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 12c | 2,200$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.66 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…a9d8backed Yes | 14c | 2,180$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 13c | 2,165$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…9e74backed Yes | 23c | 2,115$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 26c | 2,091$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 14c | 2,005$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 42c | 1,986$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.37 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,889$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…439bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,632$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes | 17c | 1,574$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 74c | 1,533$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.59 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfe…5087backed Yes | 22c | 1,533$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5e…1740backed Yes | 43c | 1,517$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,479$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 25c | 1,447$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.21 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 43c | 1,377$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 25c | 1,203$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.87 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 18c | 1,177$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.75 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 8c | 1,055$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…10f2backed No | 58c | 1,050$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,019$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.72 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba1…2af6backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 11c | 946$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 22c | 919.22$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.39 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 45c | 857.45$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 7c | 841.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…62cabacked Yes | 12c | 825.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5c…c842backed Yes | 18c | 821.83$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e95…d070backed Yes | 7c | 810.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 43c | 800$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 18c | 799.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06e…f7c2backed Yes | 13c | 781.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e8…d208backed Yes | 9c | 750$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9b12backed No | 79c | 740.4$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…a0edbacked Yes | 14c | 730$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 24c | 684.29$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 43c | 671.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.5 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 16c | 671.05$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 12c | 663.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…78cebacked Yes | 15c | 659.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 47c | 644.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 41c | 635.54$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bba…08a5backed Yes | 13c | 615.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 43c | 581$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 20c | 575.89$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc752…5afbbacked Yes | 43c | 550$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a5…47ecbacked Yes | 45c | 548.61$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 19c | 539.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099a…e433backed Yes | 12c | 536.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088a…ccf6backed Yes | 57c | 526.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 16c | 500$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…146ebacked Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…29e9backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "A Real Pain" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Challengers" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nickel Boys" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nosferatu" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "September" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Sing Sing" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Wicked" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.