Movies · resolved market
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9473680c7b89aa1f876860e61b9f2e990c484a951a4c2fd1679dd9b23ead21c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $507,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $250,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $507,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 5c | 53,170$2,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,776.38 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…2b31backed Yes | 4c | 39,682$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 33,620$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 1c | 28,087$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.78 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 25,942$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.32 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…1bbdbacked Yes | 1c | 25,098$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 0c | 19,936$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…dde5backed Yes | 1c | 17,122$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9a…3950backed Yes | 1c | 15,714$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 1c | 14,872$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x647b…403cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,765$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…2eb6backed Yes | 1c | 10,005$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 1c | 9,945$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 1c | 8,884$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…d5a1backed Yes | 2c | 7,049$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 1c | 5,744$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,417$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,277$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…d30dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,941$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,825$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 3,819$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…9e74backed Yes | 2c | 3,360$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 0c | 3,316$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 3,149$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3193…5350backed Yes | 2c | 3,072$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,029$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8957…8257backed Yes | 1c | 3,024$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 2c | 2,783$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 2c | 2,642$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 1c | 2,628$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 1c | 2,232$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…5ecebacked Yes | 1c | 2,166$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…540dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,014$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x636b…3c21backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec5…6b38backed Yes | 1c | 1,710$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…4ce9backed Yes | 1c | 1,605$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…ac2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,558$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…7497backed Yes | 1c | 1,353$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…36ddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,277$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc1…80c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,225$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 2c | 1,176$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38e…6cccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,156$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…8692backed Yes | 2c | 1,136$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 1c | 1,009$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,005$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…9579backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…9e5dbacked Yes | 2c | 944.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…6b4ebacked Yes | 1c | 925.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 3c | 870$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…b40dbacked Yes | 3c | 650$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 2c | 529.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 494.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa6…f4b0backed Yes | 3c | 355.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1819…15b9backed Yes | 4c | 227.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "A Real Pain" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Challengers" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nickel Boys" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nosferatu" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "September" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Sing Sing" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Wicked" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.