Movies · resolved market
Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dbb07df5c9410a881ce35256506b3b2ab382b1589280efb904e00c3bc8adac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $398,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $289,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Yes | 22c | 25,987$5,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,711.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 22c | 24,904$5,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,540.62 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 23,102$3,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,226.15 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 24c | 14,000$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,332.97 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 2c | 11,827$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.76 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 6c | 9,095$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.66 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 20c | 8,827$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 27c | 8,013$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.12 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 0c | 7,619$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 14c | 7,082$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.59 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 17c | 6,044$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.39 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 18c | 5,981$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.07 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd951…0c1dbacked Yes | 10c | 5,566$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…9e74backed Yes | 19c | 5,538$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.7 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 13c | 4,911$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.3 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…daa7backed Yes | 20c | 4,893$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 9c | 4,798$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.98 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 20c | 4,773$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 13c | 4,516$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.32 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 11c | 4,184$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.05 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 21c | 3,908$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 8c | 3,769$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.3 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 6c | 3,720$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.51 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 13c | 3,623$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 10c | 3,500$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.07 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 7c | 3,492$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.81 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 20c | 3,470$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.7 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2d…f033backed Yes | 16c | 3,356$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 5c | 3,116$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.78 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 22c | 3,085$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 2,743$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.68 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,392$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 4c | 2,365$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…10b7backed Yes | 9c | 2,244$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 14c | 2,210$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.66 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 15c | 2,150$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.38 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 20c | 2,039$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.59 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 77c | 1,967$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bf…7851backed No | 76c | 1,790$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 8c | 1,756$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.2 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 19c | 1,745$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.93 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f63ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,707$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,601$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.04 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 24c | 1,508$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.29 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 19c | 1,488$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,407$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 20c | 1,405$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.41 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 3c | 1,386$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 11c | 1,328$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 21c | 1,275$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cd…d1adbacked Yes | 6c | 1,250$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…6cfdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,245$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 79c | 1,197$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.99 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 23c | 1,181$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.55 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,153$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.32 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 21c | 1,144$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.26 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 19c | 1,138$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.29 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,131$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 9c | 1,053$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…a0edbacked Yes | 6c | 1,046$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 7c | 1,044$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 12c | 1,040$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e95…d070backed Yes | 22c | 1,037$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…439bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,028$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 14c | 1,009$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.82 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.78 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e40…c89dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 24c | 978.38$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.08 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 22c | 925.39$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.34 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 76c | 828$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.14 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…b881backed Yes | 24c | 824.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 15c | 802.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes | 3c | 769.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…359cbacked Yes | 7c | 753.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8f…b7fdbacked Yes | 27c | 735.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 20c | 720.2$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…ae55backed Yes | 22c | 688.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…6afdbacked Yes | 9c | 683.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Yes | 23c | 624.34$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 7c | 603.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f4…7700backed Yes | 6c | 601.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993d…09e9backed Yes | 13c | 582.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…7c9dbacked No | 79c | 544.99$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 14c | 532.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 20c | 530.23$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 22c | 527.37$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 6c | 519.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…1419backed Yes | 6c | 517.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 22c | 516.85$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…1a98backed Yes | 20c | 510.93$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc2…e431backed Yes | 20c | 507.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 23c | 507.44$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.27 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes | 20c | 500$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…8d31backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 24c | 500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.04 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "A Real Pain" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Challengers" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nickel Boys" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nosferatu" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "September" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Sing Sing" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Wicked" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.