CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: Aurora vs. Spirit
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93621779f3992b3322158de9ebbaa79b05de360ad6048df6b3570a95f8af5293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Aurora, Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e71…b27ebacked Aurora | 18c | 54,139$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,999.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 14c | 4,625$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.51 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Aurora | 20c | 4,050$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Aurora | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Spirit | 79c | 1,700$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Aurora | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.75 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Aurora | 20c | 1,244$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.83 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Aurora | 19c | 1,140$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.89 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed Spirit | 79c | 1,010$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.1 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Spirit | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Aurora | 19c | 999.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…e3c0backed Spirit | 79c | 800$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b0…4f5cbacked Aurora | 20c | 745$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Spirit | 80c | 639.51$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.09 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Spirit | 80c | 521.7$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Aurora | 20c | 506.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…0de7backed Aurora | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed Aurora | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Aurora | 10c | 479.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 249 | 43.8%109 W · 140 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Aurora | 19c | 443.82$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Spirit | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Spirit | 80c | 350.67$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Aurora | 20c | 224.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Aurora | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Aurora | 16c | 199.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Aurora | 22c | 169$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Aurora | 13c | 164$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Aurora | 14c | 149.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…eda0backed Aurora | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…0a3abacked Aurora | 19c | 111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Aurora | 19c | 110.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Aurora | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Spirit | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Aurora | 19c | 99.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebce…f37bbacked Aurora | 21c | 85.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Spirit | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…e4f4backed Spirit | 80c | 42.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…8c88backed Spirit | 80c | 34.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.