Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74743fe453d866f40bc8dd686c9ce29a5215c3ecd26939ee40a638ba29f06e5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $311,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $344,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 316 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 56c | 37,428$20,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,847.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -84%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 32c | 17,862$5,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,706.17 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 66c | 11,564$7,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,876.42 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed No | 75c | 8,679$6,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,140.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 74c | 8,540$6,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.65 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed No | 67c | 7,937$5,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,631.77 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 50c | 7,054$3,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,539.55 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…7e8cbacked No | 34c | 5,660$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,754.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 74c | 5,293$3,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.46 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…7492backed No | 79c | 5,170$4,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 25c | 4,866$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,648.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +299.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 51c | 4,842$2,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,369.17 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 31c | 4,025$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.33 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 8c | 3,781$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540b…e4e7backed Yes | 43c | 3,479$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 44c | 3,411$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.06 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 72c | 3,228$2,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.06 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 50c | 3,157$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.63 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 47c | 3,111$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.82 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 26c | 2,933$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.71 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 57c | 2,733$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.52 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbb…b2e4backed No | 77c | 2,643$2,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ce…a5bcbacked Yes | 25c | 2,398$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…d16fbacked Yes | 45c | 2,357$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked No | 28c | 2,335$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…2b04backed No | 26c | 2,321$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 2,048$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.25 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes | 35c | 2,000$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…d9e0backed No | 31c | 1,965$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 67c | 1,892$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 70c | 1,865$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.7 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked No | 51c | 1,442$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed No | 55c | 1,440$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 33c | 1,395$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5f…82b5backed No | 55c | 1,352$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 20c | 1,292$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60bd…d70abacked Yes | 56c | 1,277$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,253$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…4947backed Yes | 43c | 1,200$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…0de7backed No | 49c | 1,187$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 36cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 32c | 1,184$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,164$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.05 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 64c | 1,124$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.71 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6726…eabdbacked Yes | 74c | 1,104$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…d4efbacked No | 56c | 1,023$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.35 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…fecdbacked No | 49c | 1,000$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed Yes | 47c | 999.54$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 58c | 981.28$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.28 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 43c | 937.27$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.22 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…174bbacked No | 66c | 915.78$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked No | 32c | 906$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +250.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…1993backed No | 76c | 899.97$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf7…712cbacked No | 46c | 876.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 69c | 868.6$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.69 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8999…dd86backed No | 40c | 844.18$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8178…32d8backed Yes | 63c | 835.52$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.49 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…59d0backed Yes | 47c | 818.01$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…6d98backed No | 29c | 811.44$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +605.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 74c | 809.94$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…ce9fbacked No | 78c | 762.03$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda92…264dbacked No | 33c | 750$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.07 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…8f68backed No | 56c | 722.84$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 53c | 707.04$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 21c | 700.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.53 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 65c | 700$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 36 | 83.3%30 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 71c | 699.99$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 54c | 654.35$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.78 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 60c | 631.01$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.15 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes | 46c | 628.22$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed No | 64c | 600.98$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…a093backed No | 72c | 600$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…892bbacked Yes | 21c | 582.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7556…2be1backed Yes | 58c | 575$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 32c | 571.04$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.09 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…7180backed Yes | 39c | 561.57$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01b…d6e6backed No | 54c | 559.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 64c | 554.81$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.05 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…4228backed No | 54c | 552.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +7.0wins | +0.28per pick | 40cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…249dbacked Yes | 6c | 551.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…bf57backed No | 59c | 547$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked No | 38c | 543.48$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…e851backed No | 69c | 542.27$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…eef3backed No | 54c | 541.26$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 46c | 531.89$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.16 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…c1b8backed No | 68c | 513.52$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.81 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85e…dc77backed Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…665bbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb16f…9c3ebacked No | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…852abacked No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 42c | 496.04$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.14 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 53c | 489$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.82 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…ced9backed Yes | 62c | 487.1$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…6e53backed Yes | 35c | 484.46$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 33c | 459$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.37 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…51e8backed Yes | 76c | 447.6$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 25c | 445.56$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29eb…0fc0backed Yes | 45c | 444.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.