Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8391521f8ddad9dac60dc32ffeb7d1f78c707b241ceb4b383066e4d31595a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,298,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,313,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,298,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,410 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 54c | 121,399$65,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,113.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 34c | 90,092$30,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,610.11 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Yes | 61c | 70,692$42,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,873.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 35c | 46,095$16,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,970.27 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 65c | 42,335$27,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,328.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -84%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…1943backed Yes | 75c | 38,421$28,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,980.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd32a…fa5cbacked Yes | 64c | 33,963$21,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,585.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177f…9202backed Yes | 77c | 32,149$24,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,802.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 45c | 30,350$13,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,746.17 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed No | 26c | 28,309$7,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,875.14 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 30c | 25,895$7,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,110.66 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 62c | 25,623$15,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,924.8 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked Yes | 33c | 25,393$8,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,325.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…c1c3backed Yes | 54c | 22,959$12,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,512.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 35c | 20,802$7,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,560.42 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 56c | 20,552$11,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,082.6 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 39c | 18,825$7,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,503.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…546fbacked Yes | 68c | 17,804$12,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,019.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 34c | 16,858$5,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,088.19 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 51c | 16,429$8,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,388.01 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…6adcbacked No | 55c | 16,385$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,384.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c63…dff7backed No | 41c | 15,776$6,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,307.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 20c | 14,502$2,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,577.95 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…eed3backed Yes | 67c | 14,089$9,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,465.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…e43cbacked Yes | 71c | 14,024$10,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,025.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 45c | 13,823$6,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,638.03 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d4eabacked Yes | 77c | 13,309$10,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,239.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 59c | 12,729$7,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,559.19 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 37c | 12,728$4,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,994.52 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf4…6bf6backed No | 64c | 12,350$7,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,457.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed No | 36c | 12,098$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,798.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 53c | 11,516$6,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,450.66 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 11,325$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.64 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…d6ebbacked No | 38c | 10,309$3,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,351.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…fbbfbacked Yes | 64c | 10,167$6,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,516.55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 18c | 10,152$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,304.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf3…55a7backed Yes | 72c | 10,033$7,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,199.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 35c | 9,947$3,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,424.7 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…5eb9backed No | 43c | 9,545$4,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,401.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 26c | 9,489$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480.23 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 58c | 9,398$5,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,490.57 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…54c2backed No | 50c | 9,161$4,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,564.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…c3bfbacked No | 45c | 8,534$3,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,651.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…32b8backed Yes | 61c | 8,226$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 39c | 7,943$3,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,823.83 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3936…8e4ebacked Yes | 63c | 7,925$5,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,002.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 36c | 7,833$2,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,021.47 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked No | 67c | 7,796$5,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 17c | 7,725$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked No | 53c | 7,516$3,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,541.38 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 42c | 7,433$3,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,099.18 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked Yes | 66c | 7,312$4,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,822.5 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed No | 27c | 7,228$1,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,279.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 23c | 7,169$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,553.46 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 26c | 7,102$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 57c | 6,957$3,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,962.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…b321backed Yes | 62c | 6,821$4,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,247.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…05d3backed No | 24c | 6,702$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,098.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 63c | 6,606$4,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,456.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 68c | 6,530$4,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.59 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 47c | 6,506$3,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,078.72 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ae…26c2backed No | 46c | 6,483$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,483.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…74c2backed Yes | 62c | 6,467$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…89e4backed Yes | 42c | 5,988$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,531.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f30…12c3backed Yes | 67c | 5,639$3,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,772.11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed No | 34c | 5,346$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,550.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…bcd6backed No | 56c | 5,299$2,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,356.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 54c | 5,178$2,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,385.42 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…9051backed Yes | 59c | 5,144$3,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,020.31 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…b038backed No | 34c | 5,108$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,374.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…9d60backed No | 59c | 5,064$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.65 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…5b44backed Yes | 42c | 5,023$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ab42backed Yes | 65c | 4,959$3,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,223.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…6388backed No | 57c | 4,955$2,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6107…6d97backed Yes | 60c | 4,944$2,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,943.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 29c | 4,938$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,492.32 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 71c | 4,847$3,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,453.22 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3320…2cf2backed No | 58c | 4,758$2,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 59c | 4,632$2,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,755.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1be…b87bbacked Yes | 35c | 4,527$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…6578backed Yes | 36c | 4,500$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca1…9531backed Yes | 38c | 4,500$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285c…8f76backed Yes | 36c | 4,400$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 32c | 4,335$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,933.88 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a4…a94dbacked No | 77c | 4,305$3,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 51c | 4,297$2,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,103.53 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…650abacked No | 30c | 4,284$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,004.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b9…a734backed Yes | 38c | 4,200$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 68c | 4,196$2,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,836.99 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5071…e1a1backed Yes | 66c | 4,130$2,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,731.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364d…1739backed Yes | 62c | 4,123$2,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdd…d1ecbacked Yes | 38c | 4,100$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 68c | 4,019$2,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,715.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc753…3d20backed No | 39c | 3,853$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,356.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…4bc0backed No | 71c | 3,846$2,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbb…b2e4backed Yes | 52c | 3,766$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…a9e5backed No | 22c | 3,760$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,936.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…2128backed No | 26c | 3,595$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,655.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…c420backed No | 40c | 3,589$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,162.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…adc5backed Yes | 39c | 3,519$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.66 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.