TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia recapture Sudzha before December?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$609,295
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$641,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $609,295 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes14c148,269$21,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,070.8880%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No70c38,894$27,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,743.294553.3%24 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd26…6310backed No79c27,041$21,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,639.27977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No78c19,520$15,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,244.442817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes24c10,839$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.9810625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8efa…f8c4backed No78c10,131$7,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.181266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes16c8,967$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.52224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick10cpaid+85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4518…7180backed Yes31c8,521$2,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,675.62616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-74.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes27c6,195$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.246540%26 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No77c5,018$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.162965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ca1…9531backed Yes31c4,800$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b9…a734backed Yes31c4,500$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,39520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10df…6578backed Yes29c4,333$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aae…0eefbacked Yes27c4,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecdd…d1ecbacked Yes33c4,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36ae…7cbebacked Yes26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4656…050cbacked Yes26c3,900$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c91…0573backed Yes26c3,900$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb634…9f6ebacked Yes26c3,888$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3562…f9f5backed Yes22c3,880$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf15d…7344backed Yes26c3,800$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d2…0b97backed Yes26c3,700$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02e3…9f98backed Yes22c3,488$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked No79c3,350$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.54562.2%28 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbac…280bbacked No71c3,341$2,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0dc…0784backed Yes29c3,300$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea9…4f38backed Yes26c3,300$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed Yes24c3,061$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.683240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadcd…7295backed No70c3,029$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c3,023$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.3639429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4303…38c5backed No77c2,987$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked Yes25c2,548$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.644953.1%26 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a66…9051backed Yes31c2,532$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78590%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Yes35c2,510$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cb…504cbacked No69c2,500$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7752100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5e2…25f7backed No59c2,500$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.211457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b5e…cc09backed No69c2,300$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7132100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92c1…adc5backed Yes19c2,291$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.54175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-90.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79b6…5db0backed No69c2,276$1,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda01…2326backed No71c2,200$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6382100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7bf…0519backed No69c2,200$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6822100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e26…336cbacked No62c2,100$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.23666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5234…f516backed No74c2,100$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e98…b729backed No73c2,100$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…7d03backed No67c2,100$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6932100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+55.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bdb…4ff1backed No74c2,100$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…b38fbacked No74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f38…f811backed No74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79e4…c7cdbacked No74c1,988$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35cd…4114backed No78c1,980$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee7…85a5backed No67c1,900$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6272100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+55.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbcf…9e64backed No78c1,900$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb7…6da8backed No74c1,900$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x475f…eda7backed No74c1,900$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c22…8d30backed No74c1,900$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d06…fbc4backed No74c1,900$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1946…3537backed No73c1,900$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ad…fa87backed No74c1,900$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9e…eb1bbacked No68c1,888$1,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8630…0f08backed Yes32c1,888$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e87…7ba6backed No74c1,800$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3707…a17ebacked No78c1,788$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes30c1,753$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.893212.5%4 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde76…e021backed Yes33c1,700$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e9…fde6backed No67c1,700$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb59f…4555backed No74c1,700$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa40e…7496backed No74c1,700$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cf2…c3b1backed No78c1,700$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde8a…39ecbacked No71c1,700$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ea…3ac9backed Yes40c1,680$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fb…d733backed No60c1,680$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…de08backed No70c1,670$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.6785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick53cpaid+71.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f50…375bbacked No71c1,600$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c2…c380backed No74c1,600$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07a6…2e31backed Yes39c1,598$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.151172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Yes41c1,592$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.721241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ad…5647backed Yes5c1,483$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.16714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768f…d4b6backed No76c1,435$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.1683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+41.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2474…a834backed Yes26c1,400$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b78…e679backed No68c1,352$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.383565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7064backed Yes13c1,126$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.4860%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbabd…a403backed Yes6c1,118$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd32a…fa5cbacked Yes35c1,046$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.2360%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6da6…4278backed Yes27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6672…e322backed Yes26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d99…04f3backed No63c999.86$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No69c940.89$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.8915855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb62…9d01backed Yes33c900.73$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff53…e600backed Yes26c900$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b25…ccf5backed Yes35c899.91$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eca…357ebacked Yes5c873.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed No76c817.67$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.564452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b67…76b5backed No74c800$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6d…fa3dbacked No59c793.37$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.28540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa248…19d9backed No66c786.01$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.96475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed No78c696.73$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.661872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+37.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc71…eb87backed No71c657.75$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.751752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x426f…345fbacked Yes33c654.26$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c632.19$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.12565.4%3 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a63…be7bbacked Yes23c625.03$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.