TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$470,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$487,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $470,575 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe215…93a7backed No34c98,025$33,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,328.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b93…ee1cbacked Yes66c98,025$64,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,328.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8744…370bbacked Yes77c48,302$37,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,109.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x001c…43f2backed No23c48,302$11,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,109.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d5…5e0cbacked Yes67c7,096$4,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,322.341275%9 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No12c6,859$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.6115124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No17c5,544$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.532462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ddb…9622backed No21c4,777$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes76c4,594$3,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.1869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No17c4,220$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.883930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes76c3,930$2,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.8537533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes76c3,927$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.652185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked No28c3,207$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.292128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No16c2,561$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.426838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed No25c2,498$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6302437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d19…8055backed Yes79c2,130$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+72.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x193f…5acbbacked No6c1,907$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No1c1,650$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.158843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes64c1,621$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.47354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No20c1,588$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.0441238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes76c1,563$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.947038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No2c1,477$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.952400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes71c1,476$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.5799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked No24c1,439$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.42933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No22c1,420$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.251346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No25c1,398$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.893859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd281…d2f2backed No30c1,327$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.36520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-40.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed No16c1,300$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023336.4%12 W · 21 L-6.0wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-43.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked No22c1,269$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2802751.9%14 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+43.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes66c1,205$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.857051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked No40c1,200$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.254637%17 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No17c1,155$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.346833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No1c1,124$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4815332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea0…049cbacked No28c1,115$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.65425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed Yes78c896.84$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.84742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed No20c855.83$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.664630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22c6…cf2abacked No12c804.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes70c800$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df6…30a9backed Yes72c789.75$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.042259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd834…65d2backed No29c786.78$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.692626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No34c736.59$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25021634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fa3…7948backed Yes80c713.74$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.751154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes55c651.94$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.025639.3%22 W · 34 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3dee…d437backed Yes77c649.35$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No19c606.33$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cf5…5ca2backed Yes78c603.12$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.971136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba01…1ebabacked Yes78c600$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1341553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes45c600$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.228320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83e2…ce08backed No41c590.94$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.881747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed No6c538$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.283935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No25c537.74$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1156733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a50…ff53backed Yes75c526.18$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.541844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+118%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No6c514.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2711612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed Yes63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1581…6cadbacked No19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed No16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes72c467.12$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.396842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes78c464.98$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.033432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ea…0140backed No24c441.27$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.751723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06fd…eec4backed No23c441.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No19c409.84$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.168127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked No30c401.35$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.175944.1%26 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No29c395$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11515155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed Yes70c390.26$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.263050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No19c358.44$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.961,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No37c341.81$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.511918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f8…f705backed No24c339.46$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4760%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes75c318.02$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.731,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No29c315.19$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.214434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92a7…85c0backed Yes79c315.1$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.11546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes63c312.75$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.346246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x119a…4a4dbacked Yes77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd41…8ebbbacked Yes78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed No17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes51c296.53$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.532213.6%3 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-74.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes70c295.75$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.197441.9%31 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf211…649abacked No26c290$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.3wins-0.30per pick52cpaid-65.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No17c273.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5819435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1968…bea8backed Yes76c267.76$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b3…10febacked Yes76c262.12$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.91771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6181…ad60backed Yes66c260.39$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.53742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1f…76c9backed Yes78c255.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.07250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.161020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-41.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0533…cf1cbacked No18c250$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No20c248.11$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5617713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No29c243.58$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8639522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108c…7d81backed No25c241.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x592e…0906backed No17c235$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes76c233.48$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.042437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed Yes73c228.93$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9813167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1d8…7efabacked No22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes77c212.8$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.511940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a79…5adebacked No24c204.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked No22c200.03$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.416124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.85149%25 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked No19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.