Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fc69c6fa99972be65bd88aac43c6c1cbf5ddd434d66b8ae92c63e3d05e68556
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 8,527$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.86 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 79c | 5,042$3,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.47 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 4c | 4,548$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.39 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…0140backed Yes | 19c | 2,977$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.42 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 13c | 1,422$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.75 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 17c | 1,072$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.32 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed Yes | 31c | 1,020$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.2 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…85c0backed Yes | 10c | 999.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…aaaabacked Yes | 1c | 865$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 821.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 12c | 726$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 20c | 549.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f1…0593backed Yes | 6c | 543.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 9c | 450$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 434$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 74c | 400$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 63c | 386.56$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.03 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 385.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 369.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab7…06adbacked Yes | 30c | 350.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 17c | 349.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 32c | 348.13$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…b4a3backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 11c | 280.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 60c | 280$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.1 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 28c | 274.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 12c | 238.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0557…f3a5backed Yes | 9c | 225.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes | 22c | 198.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…a55cbacked Yes | 16c | 197$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…8fc7backed Yes | 17c | 176.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 27c | 157.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed Yes | 11c | 151.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 14c | 149.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 14c | 146.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 17c | 134.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 16c | 131$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 78c | 104.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…3714backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc1…6ee1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 78c | 84.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596d…a36ebacked Yes | 27c | 72.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 19c | 72.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 16c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 66.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…b3ddbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…65d2backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 25c | 46.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…5755backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on China in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.