Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump impose tariffs on China in the first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15e65f6a16dc72ce4a12ff6aa1d138a525b60da6b667da1dfbdc775d8917a499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 77c | 833.39$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.63 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 33c | 761.99$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.08 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 4c | 672$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed No | 4c | 497$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 64c | 444$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.68 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…7b96backed No | 3c | 404.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 50c | 330.79$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 5c | 323$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 60c | 277.84$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.14 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 24c | 257.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 43c | 245.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 78c | 237.67$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 75c | 212.1$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 42c | 179.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 50c | 160.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…9fc2backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 16c | 110.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 34c | 104.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 102.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e55…41fcbacked No | 26c | 85.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed No | 47c | 78.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 67c | 62.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 58c | 50.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b7…8196backed Yes | 55c | 50.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 25c | 50.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…19a4backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5c…096abacked Yes | 57c | 29.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…3e56backed Yes | 74c | 26.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284b…0180backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 69c | 19.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…264ebacked Yes | 76c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump impose tariffs on China in the first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.