Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in the first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7d6906795d1da821a8983236ec893a702854f8ea893882e1f005408a3023f1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…0140backed Yes | 20c | 2,724$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 45c | 1,466$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.32 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 29c | 1,360$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.92 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,150$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.73 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +593.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 19c | 927.13$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.4 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 925$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8659…9178backed Yes | 13c | 761.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…9fc2backed Yes | 49c | 741.97$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 706.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.28 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 699.2$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.77 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa3…7948backed Yes | 33c | 610.9$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 49c | 600$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 50c | 577.55$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.38 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…1751backed Yes | 46c | 569$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 70c | 549.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.15 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…7ad1backed Yes | 11c | 530.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…4893backed Yes | 23c | 513.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 14c | 450.16$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.84 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed Yes | 45c | 447.97$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.35 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 11c | 442.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.81 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…649abacked No | 24c | 430$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 41c | 427$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.02 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 38c | 393.2$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.82 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 15c | 372.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.94 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 72c | 362.19$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -5.2wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 56c | 360.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.48 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 14c | 354.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.93 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 20c | 353.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.55 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked No | 68c | 345.66$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed No | 75c | 336$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.52 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 17c | 290.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 13c | 287.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.76 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 21c | 278.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.4 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 35c | 259.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.72 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 8c | 254.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.53 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 40c | 251.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.95 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…2af2backed Yes | 30c | 250.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 21c | 250$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…64a8backed No | 22c | 247$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…7575backed Yes | 13c | 233.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +130.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 16c | 229.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.44 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…d5e8backed Yes | 12c | 225$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +151.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 46c | 219.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…d452backed Yes | 9c | 209.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +144%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked No | 45c | 204.87$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…a236backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +278.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 56c | 179.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 80c | 146.22$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…56a2backed No | 56c | 139.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 30c | 130.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5f…cbbfbacked No | 78c | 128.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed Yes | 54c | 126.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed No | 78c | 125$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 74c | 121.89$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 58c | 120.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 20c | 116.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784c…c6febacked No | 72c | 112.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 54c | 110.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc20b…2cc0backed Yes | 59c | 110.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e16…84d7backed Yes | 12c | 108.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 78c | 103.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fae…ce9fbacked No | 36c | 99.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 76c | 97.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a2…93f0backed Yes | 23c | 85.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 22c | 84.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 57c | 82.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…5755backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9f…5ee2backed Yes | 60c | 79.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 78c | 77.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…4ddebacked Yes | 80c | 73.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 70.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 61c | 68.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…81dbbacked No | 76c | 66.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked No | 71c | 64.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…3d13backed No | 65c | 61.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 48c | 59.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 57.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed No | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…8e9abacked Yes | 20c | 50.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d9…5072backed Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a1…b818backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7813…eeccbacked Yes | 79c | 49.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed Yes | 57c | 47.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…3a77backed Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +61%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 41.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 60c | 38.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 78c | 37.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed No | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 31.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b7…0df1backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ca…1f54backed No | 75c | 24.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed No | 70c | 22.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 73c | 21.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in the first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on China in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.