Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaee97a6886a2f217c2965e472dd346ae3cd220568b29e6191c4bd9c326a2927b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e55…e3b9backed Yes | 11c | 50,607$5,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,566.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 11,300$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…0140backed Yes | 17c | 5,105$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.18 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,507$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.12 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 71c | 2,200$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 13c | 1,916$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.87 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 3c | 1,727$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 30c | 1,444$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed Yes | 30c | 1,021$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.3 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 10c | 915.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 10c | 902$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 888.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…796dbacked No | 79c | 836.64$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 19c | 806.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…85c0backed Yes | 13c | 752.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…83a2backed Yes | 5c | 744.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 22c | 657.92$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.51 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac7…6b3abacked Yes | 16c | 638.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +58%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 634.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f1…0593backed Yes | 5c | 622.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed Yes | 17c | 599.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 29c | 593.96$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 16c | 575$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 543.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 21c | 513.52$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 26c | 470$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed Yes | 11c | 466.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed No | 75c | 462$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 14c | 420$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 5c | 405.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 74c | 399.98$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…76c9backed Yes | 25c | 340.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 14c | 311.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed Yes | 11c | 309.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 10c | 305.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 283.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked Yes | 17c | 260$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 13c | 259.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked No | 80c | 250.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2182…e3d7backed Yes | 13c | 238.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…8ef1backed Yes | 16c | 222.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…50c7backed Yes | 9c | 198.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 13c | 198.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 79c | 187.32$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 22c | 185.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 17c | 177.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 30c | 175$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 17c | 151.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…cb4cbacked Yes | 14c | 142.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 30c | 134.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 15c | 126$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…7575backed Yes | 22c | 91.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +130.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f27…1c6dbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 73c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes | 22c | 73.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfc…014cbacked Yes | 15c | 68.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…414dbacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…5755backed No | 78c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 18c | 58.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 79c | 49.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 78c | 26.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on China in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.