Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34358ad0897f644fa89af707023b66b0193d964d75391420687712b9a9252252
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $400,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $408,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $400,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x001c…43f2backed Yes | 15c | 83,955$12,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,361.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5baa…d1b0backed No | 75c | 77,566$58,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,174.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…445fbacked Yes | 25c | 77,566$19,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,174.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 37c | 5,981$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,739.59 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 70c | 4,387$3,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,088.1 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…69debacked No | 79c | 3,830$3,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,028.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 3,129$2,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.95 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 2,711$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.91 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 19c | 2,697$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,186.97 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…a125backed Yes | 41c | 2,560$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 59c | 2,050$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.5 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 57c | 2,042$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.52 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a1…301ebacked Yes | 39c | 2,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 79c | 1,762$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.07 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…85c0backed Yes | 21c | 1,675$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 48c | 1,305$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 40c | 1,300$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…0c95backed Yes | 28c | 1,285$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 59c | 1,107$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.54 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed No | 76c | 1,046$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 75c | 1,001$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.86 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…b536backed No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…9f1abacked No | 78c | 809.05$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…a9aebacked No | 79c | 787.78$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed No | 11c | 700$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 72c | 672.29$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 17c | 642.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.1 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa3…7948backed Yes | 29c | 634.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 40c | 629.47$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.4 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 19c | 614.67$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +593.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7b…1476backed Yes | 16c | 614.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 78c | 595.12$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.23 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 17c | 537$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.78 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 61c | 533.29$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 75c | 525$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 39c | 512$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.32 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 61c | 503.8$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.32 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c96…f26abacked No | 61c | 497.37$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 25c | 490$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.8 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…adedbacked No | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac7…6b3abacked Yes | 20c | 478.16$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +58%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c86…d153backed Yes | 22c | 445.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed No | 77c | 427$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 67c | 417.8$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.41 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes | 40c | 403.79$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.27 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ac…a261backed Yes | 18c | 402.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 77c | 399.99$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.85 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 21c | 377$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.86 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 72c | 352.01$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.08 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…df20backed Yes | 19c | 350.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +513.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 46c | 326.82$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.48 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…d077backed No | 71c | 318$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.05 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -48%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 21c | 306.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.4 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…5db1backed Yes | 62c | 297.59$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 19c | 290$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2828…1e68backed No | 77c | 274.01$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 270.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.53 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9d…24b3backed No | 63c | 266.27$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 60c | 260.3$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.67 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 33c | 250$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…4893backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.29 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 64c | 226.91$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 15c | 222$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.7 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 71c | 210$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.9 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…092cbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055c…e4adbacked Yes | 26c | 193.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 17c | 190$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.23 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 24c | 181.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.34 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…99d7backed No | 63c | 180$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…a8bcbacked No | 62c | 178.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -75%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…649abacked No | 71c | 175.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 42c | 174.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 61c | 170$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 18c | 163.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.46 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 54c | 161.82$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 20c | 160$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.6 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed No | 77c | 160$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…43dcbacked No | 66c | 150.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 66c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…7fc8backed No | 69c | 136.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…3d13backed Yes | 32c | 131.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 23c | 131$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked No | 75c | 129.79$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fbf6backed No | 79c | 126.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 120.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 42c | 114.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 71c | 112.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 65c | 102.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…9b15backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…e696backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…3e95backed No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked No | 60c | 99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on China in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.