Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf020738dba678bedae04e8dec109bbaf1a48528af4833736b2f67c3586bf0b58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 9c | 4,677$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.57 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…0140backed Yes | 9c | 4,234$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 16c | 3,190$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.79 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 4c | 2,635$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…cdc2backed Yes | 1c | 2,460$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,456$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.65 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c86…d153backed Yes | 4c | 2,289$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 37c | 2,049$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.36 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 7c | 1,855$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 8c | 1,263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 38c | 1,121$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 11c | 993.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.62 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fb…2771backed Yes | 17c | 861.83$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.62 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e10…b3a4backed Yes | 6c | 840.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…85c0backed Yes | 6c | 819.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 53c | 810.9$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.92 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 708.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460f…e20bbacked Yes | 9c | 612.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…64a8backed Yes | 2c | 586.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 576.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 38c | 542.19$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 18c | 507.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…60cdbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 10c | 456$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…a5afbacked Yes | 27c | 400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -65%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked No | 78c | 367.15$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed Yes | 3c | 358$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…09ebbacked Yes | 6c | 341.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 7c | 329$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…05a0backed Yes | 7c | 273.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 71c | 224.72$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes | 10c | 208.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 36c | 190.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20b…2cc0backed No | 80c | 161.1$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 9c | 143.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes | 59c | 140.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 79c | 126.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…df20backed Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +513.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…ab80backed Yes | 37c | 109.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 104.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 80.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 21c | 54.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Yes | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 80c | 49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7813…eeccbacked Yes | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…5500backed Yes | 50c | 30.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…10b6backed Yes | 48c | 29.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on China in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.