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Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,292
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,292 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ac3…f3b0backed No27c28,000$7,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,56060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31c0…9cb4backed Yes73c28,000$20,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5602100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+195.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No64c9,691$6,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,235.171931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes53c8,950$4,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,204.128820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes62c6,065$3,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,291.518033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9cb…9dafbacked Yes2c5,354$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,245.071100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,814.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes3c4,981$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,837.663938.5%15 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+102.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes12c4,750$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,170.55626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No65c3,843$2,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,484.8869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes40c2,507$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.012365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No29c2,439$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70016535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2bf3…8c3dbacked Yes4c2,133$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.172147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+101.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed No28c1,253$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.726256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No18c1,122$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7211121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No18c1,122$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7211120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed No32c1,096$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.192437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No57c1,048$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.463966.7%26 W · 13 L+10.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+133.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes40c940.05$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.8616643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83e2…ce08backed Yes18c921.56$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.931747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes52c915.18$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.2799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed Yes7c833.1$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.11729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes54c755$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.9720446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb90…bc2fbacked No57c735.61$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes67c711.29$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.3837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed No27c674.85$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.59728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No50c660.94$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.982842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed Yes53c591.89$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.193050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4498…06a8backed Yes51c586.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No22c572.14$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.738127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes71c548.96$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.456546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x232f…a5afbacked Yes22c500$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick29cpaid-65%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fa3…7948backed Yes75c489.2$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.341154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No46c468.39$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.641435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb882…e13ebacked Yes54c442.76$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.761338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes43c342.66$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.169846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bc6…4ddebacked Yes53c317.3$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.021957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No18c312.22$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9737844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8356…7ad1backed Yes72c308.34$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.131330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd7…7575backed Yes70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+130.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed No55c274.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.252642.3%11 W · 15 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-36.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed No42c274.03$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.923033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd0…796dbacked No64c262.23$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x631a…73cabacked Yes79c255.06$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.86850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes47c249.99$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.497051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked No44c225.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003256.3%18 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes25c222.31$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.172847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8659…9178backed No41c217.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes9c206.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.3115032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes31c200.45$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9928320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd205…f4e2backed No51c197.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb909…d559backed Yes70c193.27$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No53c175.11$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1316854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7813…eeccbacked Yes33c165$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.071266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes65c160$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.85942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No49c158$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8810630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf265…348dbacked No46c146.06$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.861040%4 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-46%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf211…649abacked No23c140$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.61421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.3wins-0.30per pick52cpaid-65.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdd29…a638backed Yes57c139.2$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.861323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No27c138.13$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.224434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes56c135$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6014048.6%68 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c132.16$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.11,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cac…6fa7backed No57c124.12$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.753644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No74c117.13$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd7…a691backed Yes38c116.64$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.64944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes47c112.51$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.126124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No27c112$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9618914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdad…d8b0backed No45c110.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed Yes54c106.67$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.67475.7%56 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ac7…6b3abacked Yes55c104$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.81361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+58%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No27c103.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.253859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3119328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x743b…df30backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2420…ce7fbacked No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.11533.3%5 W · 10 L-4.7wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-51.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505442.6%23 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a79…5adebacked No52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabbb…00eebacked No48c92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked No22c91.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204820.8%10 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04ce…da52backed Yes50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x508c…3449backed Yes50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91e3…b326backed No48c77.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd15…1796backed No51c72.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.423923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes74c67.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.772615.4%4 W · 22 L-6.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-78.4%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes79c67$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.351947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No29c66.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1217713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa568…12f6backed Yes52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.84052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x138e…42b4backed Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.964770.2%33 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.86842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No45c59.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4711918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e4…c8abbacked Yes42c58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.571553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c1b…742bbacked Yes79c55.23$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd713…4662backed Yes39c55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.422532%8 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5983…64a8backed No28c50.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.271560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+53.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No39c50.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206955.1%38 W · 31 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.517238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225944.1%26 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58142%34 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.53959%23 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d01…b284backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.