TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb882…e13e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
90
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 56 out of 100; worst Champions League at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+181.2%+$46.46
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$24.63
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+67%+$16.75
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)backed Croatia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: England (-1.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)backed Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)backed Algeria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: France (-2.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+73.6%+$18.41
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$14.12
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+150%+$22.5
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will the U.S. take over Gaza before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$44.52
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$47.06
Will Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT+84.5%+$202.76
Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT+315.2%+$63.04
Will Trump announce tariffs on Australia on April 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$27.8
Will Trump announce tariffs on France on April 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump announce tariffs on Venezuela on April 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$65.26
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$38.43
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-66.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
FIFA Club World Cup: Inter Milan vs. Fluminense (To Advance)backed Inter Milan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
FIFA Club World Cup: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo (To Advance)backed Botafogo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Palmeiras win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+106.2%+$21.24
Will PSG beat Botafogo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Chelsea beat LAFC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$26.58
Will Palmeiras beat FC Porto?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milanbacked Inter · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance)backed Arsenal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Champions League: Inter Milan vs. Barcelona (To Advance)backed Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST50%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+79.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+84.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+40.8%+$10.21
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$19.09
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Brighton vs. Tottenham end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$51.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dozen eggs be below $4.50 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$27.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+62.6%+$50.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LDU de Quito vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.