TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$294,376
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$295,496

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,376 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ac2…9a73backed Yes30c84,256$25,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,276.8425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62ed…a702backed No70c84,256$58,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,276.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2066…80dcbacked No73c48,213$35,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,017.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe762…cd2cbacked Yes27c48,213$13,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,017.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes30c10,001$3,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,013.247638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No72c3,984$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.528453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51cc…c6c9backed No77c3,431$2,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.461833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-45.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes16c2,300$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3778632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed No62c2,059$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.686256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No65c2,000$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.2837844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa699…785fbacked No80c1,359$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.82757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa70b…7648backed Yes48c1,053$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf20b…fd6ebacked Yes24c827.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d13…a018backed No74c777$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.912339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bae…d5e8backed Yes19c750$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes23c739.62$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.48128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick31cpaid-88.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16d5…5e0cbacked No73c600.13$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.651275%9 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes25c600$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.810834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No65c551.49$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.0313556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbacc…e985backed Yes20c399.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No65c378.64$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3111950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No77c366.69$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.919436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed No72c350$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes30c328.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No66c277.62$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.965742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No76c273.08$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.198058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2060…bfacbacked Yes56c267.45$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd1a…520fbacked Yes38c256.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No57c250$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.569634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x540f…60cdbacked No78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.54771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes24c240$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.82025%5 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed No72c220$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.83253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No67c210$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.48355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3911…413fbacked No80c192.71$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe297…314abacked Yes34c187.64$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes19c182.61$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8717238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x966a…4d34backed Yes31c180$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.442528%7 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06af…3741backed Yes10c180$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.82157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+63.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f6c…6909backed No79c179$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes18c167.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.18256.1%46 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes16c160$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.378433.3%28 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x790c…033cbacked Yes28c143.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No76c140.43$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8113167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes15c129.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.391,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb449…cc55backed No80c125.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.53728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7629…cddabacked Yes32c125$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No65c110$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.51526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed No70c103.75$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.14233.3%14 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ec…083dbacked Yes40c101.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333450%17 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b04…b4f6backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496346%29 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb882…e13ebacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…4a66backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264727.7%13 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f6…58d6backed No74c99.96$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.992138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No68c90$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.823543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff63…a2f8backed Yes34c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.63073.3%22 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91fb…2771backed No58c90$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.52147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb67e…b77bbacked Yes33c84.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c18…49efbacked Yes21c83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.43119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea1…9e39backed Yes22c81.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes19c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.230319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30cc…5ed3backed Yes23c79.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.71145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aa5…734ebacked Yes19c78.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b8…4ee0backed No60c76.56$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.623228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9920…3fc4backed Yes33c72.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes48c69.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7914048.6%68 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233138.7%12 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8429…64bdbacked No43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.43933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab4…9464backed Yes19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaa7…fcdebacked Yes18c56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No80c55$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eae…4db9backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c1…05d0backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes27c47.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6fbc…176bbacked Yes46c43.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No59c42.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1914460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c41.11$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.681,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b0d…1744backed No71c37.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.87580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb78d…1d48backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ba…9fd1backed No73c30.58$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.264656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No60c30.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.985341.5%22 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No77c21.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.831840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc992…f4b0backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca4a…a055backed No79c18.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.89666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+39.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.