Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03af958c2cc5095fe82d8840389177e72de113b97f7f67ea278dd20ed3be4c5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $294,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $295,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ac2…9a73backed Yes | 30c | 84,256$25,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,276.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ed…a702backed No | 70c | 84,256$58,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,276.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…80dcbacked No | 73c | 48,213$35,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,017.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…cd2cbacked Yes | 27c | 48,213$13,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,017.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 30c | 10,001$3,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013.24 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 72c | 3,984$2,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.52 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…c6c9backed No | 77c | 3,431$2,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.46 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 16c | 2,300$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 62c | 2,059$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.68 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 65c | 2,000$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.28 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa699…785fbacked No | 80c | 1,359$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…7648backed Yes | 48c | 1,053$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…fd6ebacked Yes | 24c | 827.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed No | 74c | 777$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.91 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…d5e8backed Yes | 19c | 750$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 23c | 739.62$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.48 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16d5…5e0cbacked No | 73c | 600.13$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.65 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 65c | 551.49$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.03 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 20c | 399.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 65c | 378.64$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.31 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 77c | 366.69$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 72c | 350$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes | 30c | 328.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 66c | 277.62$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 76c | 273.08$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…bfacbacked Yes | 56c | 267.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…520fbacked Yes | 38c | 256.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 250$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…60cdbacked No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 24c | 240$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed No | 72c | 220$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 67c | 210$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…413fbacked No | 80c | 192.71$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…314abacked Yes | 34c | 187.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 19c | 182.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed Yes | 31c | 180$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 10c | 180$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…6909backed No | 79c | 179$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 18c | 167.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked Yes | 28c | 143.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 76c | 140.43$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 129.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…cc55backed No | 80c | 125.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…cddabacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 70c | 103.75$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ec…083dbacked Yes | 40c | 101.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…b4f6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…e13ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…4a66backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed No | 74c | 99.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…a2f8backed Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91fb…2771backed No | 58c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb67e…b77bbacked Yes | 33c | 84.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…49efbacked Yes | 21c | 83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea1…9e39backed Yes | 22c | 81.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30cc…5ed3backed Yes | 23c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…734ebacked Yes | 19c | 78.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed No | 60c | 76.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9920…3fc4backed Yes | 33c | 72.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…64bdbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab4…9464backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa7…fcdebacked Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eae…4db9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…05d0backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 47.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…176bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 59c | 42.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 41.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed No | 71c | 37.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 73c | 30.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 60c | 30.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc992…f4b0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…a055backed No | 79c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?this page
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Australia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Brazil on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Canada on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on China on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on France on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on India on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Japan on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Russia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on South Korea on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Venezuela on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Vietnam on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.