Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce tariffs on India on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63b445bd487e7c388a8c9b69606ae389547ae980adb3cb6efe3657e87e4c3820
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d56…2400backed No | 14c | 60,500$8,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,470 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 16c | 2,019$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.28 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…3a54backed No | 21c | 870$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 28c | 553$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.94 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 77c | 535.32$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.95 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 24c | 500.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 4c | 419$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d0…b336backed Yes | 79c | 345$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c6…a27cbacked No | 21c | 290$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 65c | 287.33$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.57 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…4912backed No | 21c | 270$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1296…0d1fbacked No | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 216.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…314abacked No | 24c | 210.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked No | 20c | 210$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 199.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf32…ccd1backed Yes | 79c | 185$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3f…4a6ebacked Yes | 79c | 175$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3c…710abacked Yes | 79c | 170$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 169.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6750…b2e9backed Yes | 80c | 167.5$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…be45backed Yes | 79c | 165$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 14c | 162.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ea…8bdabacked No | 16c | 122.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90c…82e8backed Yes | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…7123backed Yes | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45b…d775backed Yes | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…ad50backed Yes | 70c | 116.54$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…a104backed Yes | 79c | 115$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed No | 19c | 110.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked Yes | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c614backed No | 26c | 108.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…ebb4backed Yes | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27e8…0693backed No | 38c | 92.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 19c | 87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…5b56backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 69c | 76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 35c | 72.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 71.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 35c | 57.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf485…53ccbacked No | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…019dbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed No | 64c | 48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed No | 31c | 45.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…47c8backed Yes | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked No | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked No | 26c | 42.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bd19backed No | 48c | 29.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…1a0dbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce tariffs on India on April 2?this page
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Australia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Brazil on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Canada on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on China on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on France on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Japan on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Russia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on South Korea on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Venezuela on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Vietnam on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.