TailMyPicks
Market

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump announce tariffs on India on April 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,356
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$130,768

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,356 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d56…2400backed No14c60,500$8,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,47020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No16c2,019$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.285843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1225…3a54backed No21c870$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked No28c553$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.944727.7%13 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes77c535.32$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.958058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No24c500.99$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5617238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed No4c419$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.768820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1d0…b336backed Yes79c345$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c6…a27cbacked No21c290$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes65c287.33$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5710834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbd…4912backed No21c270$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1296…0d1fbacked No21c240$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No17c216.93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe297…314abacked No24c210.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd41…8ebbbacked No20c210$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.51050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes74c199.99$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5169634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf32…ccd1backed Yes79c185$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f3f…4a6ebacked Yes79c175$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb3c…710abacked Yes79c170$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No23c169.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.411,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6750…b2e9backed Yes80c167.5$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e8…be45backed Yes79c165$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed No14c162.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.757265.3%47 W · 25 L+8.0wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+20%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked No20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302119%4 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-59.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7ea…8bdabacked No16c122.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa90c…82e8backed Yes79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41c…7123backed Yes79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45b…d775backed Yes79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329f…ad50backed Yes70c116.54$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.96683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4977…a104backed Yes79c115$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b12…aba8backed No19c110.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.432339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67db…21adbacked Yes74c110$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.941926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecd7…c614backed No26c108.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.22616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb993…ebb4backed Yes79c105$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x27e8…0693backed No38c92.64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No19c87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.311347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2aa7…5b56backed Yes79c80$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes69c76$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.627051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes35c72.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2414460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No25c71.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No21c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9114125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes72c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.64042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No19c61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.891,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No35c57.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No43c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf485…53ccbacked No32c55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No29c51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92bd…019dbacked Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56346%29 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.53336.4%12 W · 21 L-6.0wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-43.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x239a…a0c6backed No64c48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.721250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e73…a236backed No31c45.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.973935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0e…47c8backed Yes79c45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b13…a72bbacked No34c44.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x633f…3c8abacked No26c42.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df6…30a9backed Yes64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.42259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c54…bd19backed No48c29.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.31216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3df…1a0dbacked Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.