Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd101273544277e19e469ad447032433dfc0a93d216a6a47994b7273cd1706e5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…23ebbacked No | 11c | 485$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +252%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…aeebbacked No | 26c | 346$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 20c | 274.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d5…5e0cbacked Yes | 77c | 263.19$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.44 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 200.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.72 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 26c | 191$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 27c | 180.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.58 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 61c | 170$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 161$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…9ca5backed No | 14c | 145.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +261.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed No | 19c | 132.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 76c | 120$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…4b34backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 25c | 91.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked Yes | 75c | 91.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…e13ebacked No | 24c | 83.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5aa…87acbacked No | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6750…b2e9backed Yes | 79c | 69.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 76c | 56.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…70b0backed No | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +179.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 36c | 38.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd9…5dffbacked Yes | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2?this page
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Australia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Brazil on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Canada on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on China on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on France on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on India on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Japan on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Russia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on South Korea on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Venezuela on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Vietnam on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.