Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce tariffs on Venezuela on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ee267cf2ea1509dd6a7e39a0eb167ef721cc62fe1f586d4f7f50c5b62021e3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba62…a624backed Yes | 77c | 47,326$36,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,884.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d56…2400backed No | 23c | 47,326$10,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,884.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d5…5e0cbacked Yes | 79c | 1,058$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.36 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef6…dc43backed No | 24c | 900$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe953…a2efbacked Yes | 76c | 745$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked No | 27c | 309.21$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 27c | 286.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 22c | 280.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed No | 23c | 250$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 73c | 175.68$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 7c | 174.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…aa8dbacked Yes | 76c | 155$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…bdf7backed No | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 20c | 137.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 75c | 132.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…c6c9backed Yes | 59c | 127.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 12c | 111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe076…184cbacked No | 27c | 85.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 16c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…534cbacked Yes | 71c | 79.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 66c | 72.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…e13ebacked No | 40c | 50.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 65c | 47.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 23c | 46.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8773…c213backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 71c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Venezuela on April 2?this page
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Australia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Brazil on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Canada on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on China on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on France on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on India on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Japan on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Russia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on South Korea on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Vietnam on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.