Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce tariffs on South Korea on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64a4e508cc47b98475094691382277424dfcb3a98bf4492c22c92c4767596d0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 14c | 1,490$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.6 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 26c | 1,116$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.37 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…965dbacked No | 25c | 570$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 68c | 522$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.66 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…5d73backed Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 66c | 491.92$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.1 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…e8c0backed Yes | 75c | 450$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…030bbacked No | 37c | 422.37$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f88…e600backed No | 25c | 420$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…914dbacked No | 25c | 410$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 35c | 404$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 75c | 360$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fc…6815backed No | 25c | 340$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked No | 29c | 336.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x026a…9ab9backed No | 25c | 325$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 62c | 315.5$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.98 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 300$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0e…b3f3backed No | 25c | 230$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc00…d9e8backed Yes | 75c | 220$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb9…1e9abacked No | 25c | 190$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 31c | 181$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 15c | 167.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 19c | 167.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked No | 30c | 162.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 63c | 156.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b7…9c41backed Yes | 75c | 145$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0a…3645backed Yes | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3855…ee41backed Yes | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…3e68backed Yes | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db7…44c1backed Yes | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…923fbacked Yes | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…feecbacked Yes | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 33c | 113$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 109.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…1544backed Yes | 75c | 105$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 35c | 101.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…bee5backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651d…6f4dbacked Yes | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 76c | 97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa699…785fbacked Yes | 73c | 93.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3b…9d46backed Yes | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…e47cbacked Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 28c | 68.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…1d40backed Yes | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a04…b2a6backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 38c | 55.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…21fcbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdf…2e1abacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…66d3backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f7…071cbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd620…f1fdbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…dca6backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 65c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce tariffs on South Korea on April 2?this page
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Australia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Brazil on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Canada on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on China on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on France on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on India on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Japan on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Russia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Venezuela on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Vietnam on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.