TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump announce tariffs on Australia on April 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,868

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab7b…f350backed Yes41c4,395$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.532766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+43.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No64c3,086$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.534057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed No42c2,185$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.376256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No52c1,994$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.228453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab5d…a21bbacked Yes65c1,210$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9825…f8e8backed Yes56c1,061$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+36.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No69c1,057$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.7611347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes54c1,001$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.027638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No28c987.41$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.156442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5226…b227backed Yes26c671.5$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81d0…2731backed Yes29c625$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed No76c585$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.3475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f8…7737backed Yes11c570.51$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.24969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+44.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x21fe…da90backed Yes22c520.46$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.592626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes42c490.36$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.487051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No66c428.99$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.798355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4d8…a3dbbacked No58c399.99$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+236.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes30c376$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6217238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes32c372.69$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4119435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcec1…3d29backed Yes21c340$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.250%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No59c326.07$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8713167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes38c314.48$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.361145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No42c299$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.425742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No57c295$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.858632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32d5…a6dcbacked Yes6c290$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.22933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No36c257.62$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.5923543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67db…21adbacked No57c255$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.81926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b02…fb77backed No71c225$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes50c223.59$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.753228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No40c211.39$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9310834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed No47c210$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.023959%23 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+32.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x995d…bd40backed No50c200.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.42837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8069634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10015032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809557.9%55 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No55c200$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb31…916dbacked Yes29c185$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fb…2771backed No75c155.75$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.72147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e7a…e5d7backed No71c155$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ef…c75bbacked Yes40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-72.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.988256.1%46 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x613a…b945backed Yes25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+77.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed No61c148.52$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.521650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes12c146.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8911336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No45c142.77$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5237844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd67…e79fbacked No71c140$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d59…e8a8backed Yes39c138.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4216…2daabacked No71c135$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3233…030bbacked No45c133.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.331330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b12…aba8backed No61c127.05$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.962339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e73…a236backed Yes55c126.31$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.483935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes40c120.53$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes59c120$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.66124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffd…b3f8backed No71c115$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fc…0ab0backed No64c110.36$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Yes50c110$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5293…4b34backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb53…4576backed Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0584…f0d8backed Yes22c89.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.785137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb882…e13ebacked No59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.81338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9265…3c25backed Yes57c64.33$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c57.56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.251,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5042…fcb0backed Yes60c57$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.353855.3%21 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b23…91d6backed Yes44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa637…686dbacked Yes71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd168…f3cfbacked No41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd5…605abacked No71c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No39c41.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8be…e868backed Yes57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-75.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f0f…7b8abacked Yes29c35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25fd…a641backed No71c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+76.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf45…fca9backed No57c31.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.25851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4acf…eaf1backed No68c29.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7a6…efddbacked Yes48c29.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9920…3fc4backed Yes43c26.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceb6…6d4fbacked Yes59c26.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4750%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No60c25.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.015735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed Yes56c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…9a64backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79e5…0175backed Yes58c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadaa…6649backed No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.231840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fd7…eb50backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfd9…5dffbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2af…e23ebacked No71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.