Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce tariffs on China on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e12d56624f1161c0dd86a149e235ff5e62addc1ea384b34f8c7ec91e47a0511
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 4c | 3,267$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 3c | 2,277$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 13c | 1,956$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.66 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 11c | 1,610$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.29 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd70…fdadbacked No | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775a…859abacked No | 12c | 450.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 399.98$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 16c | 376.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 18c | 297.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…314abacked No | 20c | 250.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 79c | 241.52$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 80c | 222.82$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 23c | 222$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 15c | 192.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 7c | 182.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 11c | 175$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed No | 20c | 165.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 147.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 142.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 70c | 131.15$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed No | 17c | 127.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 21c | 109.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe076…184cbacked No | 21c | 103.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…873abacked Yes | 65c | 98.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed0…b1b8backed No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…a149backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 79c | 67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 80c | 64.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 20c | 61.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 24c | 46.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6750…b2e9backed Yes | 78c | 42.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…3f46backed Yes | 79c | 40.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f5…3155backed Yes | 80c | 33.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d1…7102backed Yes | 80c | 17.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce tariffs on China on April 2?this page
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Australia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Brazil on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Canada on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on France on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on India on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Japan on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Russia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on South Korea on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Venezuela on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Vietnam on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.