Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce tariffs on Japan on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x776915f341a490466533b609107dc7b696f134180f5b1ba34f789aaa380b070c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 3c | 2,255$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 36c | 2,249$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.86 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 6c | 2,167$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.1 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 53c | 926.78$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.14 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 77c | 910.24$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.31 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked No | 34c | 772.1$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…51f3backed No | 4c | 720$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 62c | 555$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.9 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 55c | 521$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.51 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 60c | 500$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.66 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 32c | 440.47$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.45 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 47c | 340$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 49c | 270$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed Yes | 74c | 270$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f393backed No | 52c | 206.53$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 58c | 175.89$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59b1…4960backed Yes | 61c | 159.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 152$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 48c | 151.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 46c | 145.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 22c | 141.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e95…a0e4backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…40d8backed No | 43c | 114.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…f391backed Yes | 33c | 79.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…c132backed Yes | 67c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 58c | 53.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…176bbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…3ff6backed No | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 60c | 42.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fb…2771backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…4910backed Yes | 68c | 36.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…4f24backed No | 58c | 34.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 63c | 31.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…030bbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 77c | 28.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56b8…4cdbbacked Yes | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…4a66backed Yes | 70c | 23.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 50c | 21.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…64ecbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Japan on April 2?this page
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Australia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Brazil on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Canada on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on China on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on France on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on India on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Russia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on South Korea on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Venezuela on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Vietnam on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.