Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce tariffs on France on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e28c5bb005502bde4d12029c2cc12537d70d8a2411dda2ad202544abf048574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 29c | 10,000$2,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,917.62 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 73c | 4,258$3,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.2 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 24c | 1,476$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.3 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 72c | 1,309$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.6 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x651d…6f4dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…c540backed No | 79c | 875$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 25c | 812.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 78c | 775.25$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.47 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…d154backed Yes | 26c | 641.72$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed No | 80c | 600$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.51 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes | 26c | 576.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…db4dbacked Yes | 19c | 528.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 70c | 519.98$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed No | 73c | 459.46$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.06 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 74c | 349.99$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed No | 78c | 302.7$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 74c | 282$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…e13ebacked Yes | 20c | 201.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed Yes | 20c | 173.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked Yes | 24c | 169.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 69c | 164.49$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed Yes | 26c | 153.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…314abacked Yes | 33c | 151.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…6909backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa7…fcdebacked Yes | 14c | 128.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 27c | 128$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…49efbacked Yes | 12c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 73c | 119.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed No | 80c | 114.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked Yes | 24c | 109.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…c0f8backed No | 80c | 107.18$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 78c | 105.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 17c | 99.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 12c | 96.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 16c | 85.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 75c | 84.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eae…4db9backed Yes | 31c | 79.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bd…3c80backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd7…7113backed Yes | 29c | 69.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…88f1backed Yes | 31c | 63.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 59.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 71c | 55.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 35c | 53.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 71c | 47.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…a149backed No | 79c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb553…a77bbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 79c | 24.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce tariffs on France on April 2?this page
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Australia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Brazil on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Canada on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on China on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on India on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Japan on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Russia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on South Korea on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Venezuela on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Vietnam on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.