Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce tariffs on Canada on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bd1994962e1192d97480ff92d44692876471f6fdd8337f084cbda83dc15ab5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 24c | 1,266$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.46 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…2b77backed No | 31c | 636.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 26c | 465.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 19c | 430$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.41 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 22c | 340$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.7 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 67c | 254$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +118%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 66c | 170.67$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 14c | 151.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.67 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 78c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed Yes | 18c | 148$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…aeebbacked No | 34c | 143.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 19c | 102.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f57…7a66backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 20cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…2e57backed Yes | 74c | 87.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 79c | 80.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 79c | 79.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…25b4backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 30c | 74.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd694…6488backed Yes | 39c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…333fbacked Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…7a64backed Yes | 80c | 47.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d1…33b8backed Yes | 42c | 47.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 42c | 43.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 75c | 37.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 32c | 34.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a1…745abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65b…779dbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 79c | 12.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Canada on April 2?this page
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Australia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Brazil on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on China on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on France on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on India on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Japan on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Mexico on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Russia on April 2?No won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on South Korea on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Venezuela on April 2?Yes won
- Will Trump announce tariffs on Vietnam on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.