Music · resolved market
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b15ff57f3289e6caa2d1239ce963949c593119a987e41d05c185a49e97b18ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 61c | 13,326$8,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,108.53 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…7badbacked Yes | 32c | 6,493$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,428.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…f455backed Yes | 31c | 6,206$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,282 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 64c | 4,907$3,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,122.59 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed Yes | 77c | 3,833$2,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed No | 60c | 3,545$2,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 37c | 2,773$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 71c | 2,772$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Yes | 35c | 2,225$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…4350backed No | 67c | 1,988$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,871$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 61c | 1,500$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,500$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Yes | 33c | 1,212$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +701.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 66c | 1,135$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 65c | 1,100$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.98 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8a…5705backed Yes | 39c | 1,061$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 68c | 1,000$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 39c | 942.18$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +216.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 64c | 941.34$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 33c | 785.02$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…22aabacked No | 67c | 768.45$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 61c | 755.52$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 34c | 754.71$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.18 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed No | 66c | 754.38$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 46c | 749.99$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 29c | 729.07$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2886backed No | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 49c | 709.84$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Yes | 37c | 653.85$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87cf…04cabacked No | 70c | 621.43$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…de68backed Yes | 31c | 620.45$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…dd5cbacked Yes | 35c | 585$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd048…8155backed Yes | 42c | 579.64$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 70c | 565.94$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed No | 69c | 535.82$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 46c | 512.81$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 39c | 505.56$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +328.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…6c6bbacked Yes | 52c | 503.07$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c75…e37dbacked No | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…9441backed No | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 60c | 499.99$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 44c | 488.76$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 33c | 442$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.4 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 37c | 432.77$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…d8e6backed Yes | 47c | 421.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 27c | 412.52$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed No | 63c | 404.17$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed No | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 40c | 395.75$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 36c | 353.43$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Yes | 40c | 345$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…f71abacked Yes | 52c | 337.48$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +290.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…7fc0backed Yes | 30c | 335.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +232.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 56c | 330$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 34c | 300$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed No | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…fd92backed Yes | 34c | 294.94$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +190%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…eb0abacked Yes | 47c | 279$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc069…7136backed Yes | 32c | 270$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +211.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 43c | 260.19$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.21 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6565…0359backed Yes | 29c | 247.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +243.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 59c | 240.67$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.18 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de6…b8f0backed Yes | 43c | 235$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 230.09$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.82 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 57c | 220$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.87 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 70c | 217.77$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Yes | 30c | 217.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 48c | 207.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.54 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed No | 63c | 200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 200$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed4…a52abacked No | 55c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 66c | 190.9$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 29c | 190$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…a04dbacked No | 10c | 187.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 57c | 179.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…d4d2backed No | 70c | 177.14$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 170.13$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.48 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a0…ca6abacked Yes | 45c | 169.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 62c | 166.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…1f44backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 60c | 155.41$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked No | 72c | 155.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…2a96backed No | 72c | 151.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed No | 61c | 149.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 20c | 148.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…da5ebacked No | 63c | 134.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…eeccbacked No | 55c | 133.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 65c | 131.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 69c | 130$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?this page
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 19 minutes?No won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 20 minutes?Yes won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 22 minutes?Yes won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 23 minutes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.