Music · resolved market
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 20 minutes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39337bd7cfa2f11b38e3362de5f6fb1e1199a635d4d4cf91057f9a2ee7b2b967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 6c | 11,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.99 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 4c | 2,926$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 4c | 2,439$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 12c | 2,230$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed Yes | 33c | 2,066$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb29e…fd62backed No | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…2312backed No | 51c | 1,500$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 73c | 1,000$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked No | 19c | 900$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 26c | 757.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +216.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 77c | 539.72$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 14c | 487.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…f71abacked Yes | 17c | 399.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +290.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0728…d4e0backed Yes | 15c | 368$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 4c | 314.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c75…e37dbacked No | 71c | 299.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 14c | 181.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed Yes | 13c | 169.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +160.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…055ebacked No | 18c | 166.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf462…3a4dbacked Yes | 14c | 163.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +609.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8886…3913backed Yes | 18c | 152.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 16c | 148$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.82 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa841…46cbbacked Yes | 54c | 142.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 17c | 120.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +328.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0c…0cb1backed Yes | 11c | 115$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +478.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…4ca4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e3…0bd6backed Yes | 16c | 93.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…e41fbacked Yes | 15c | 85.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +241.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed Yes | 41c | 77.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Yes | 19c | 53.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…3c7bbacked No | 42c | 42.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 20 minutes?this page
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 19 minutes?No won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?Yes won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 22 minutes?Yes won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 23 minutes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.