Music · resolved market
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 22 minutes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf289d81334cda5e716a567f2d10d3b98ae07725e22d07acb08437fc77f3d437c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 69c | 2,989$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 24c | 2,065$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.97 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 27c | 1,600$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.66 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…67d8backed No | 28c | 1,405$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d05…39dbbacked No | 20c | 1,052$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.92 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 699.98$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.99 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 70c | 615.06$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.92 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…746bbacked No | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13c…ed9cbacked Yes | 73c | 595.48$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…dd5cbacked Yes | 71c | 549$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 22c | 538.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 78c | 490.86$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…eeccbacked No | 22c | 460.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ad…80f6backed No | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 25c | 454.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 21c | 450.39$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 78c | 441.4$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 27c | 396.85$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Yes | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…ab7fbacked Yes | 73c | 312.33$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 25c | 299.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -82%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…adbebacked No | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed No | 29c | 237.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cac…d748backed No | 18c | 227.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 23c | 222$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…4ca4backed Yes | 79c | 199.96$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 20c | 194.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 68c | 174.37$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 76c | 159.75$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 152.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked No | 27c | 146.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 34c | 135$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cce…91f7backed Yes | 76c | 132.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 130.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f72…089dbacked Yes | 78c | 128.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked No | 54c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 16c | 116.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…6c6bbacked Yes | 80c | 95.67$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 73c | 95.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Yes | 75c | 88.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 32c | 85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7294…4029backed No | 24c | 82.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…e140backed Yes | 74c | 67.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…dbf7backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 16c | 63.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…0c77backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…5704backed No | 20c | 53.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6322…0491backed Yes | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…eb0abacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…3cd0backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…d059backed Yes | 74c | 41.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e83…243bbacked Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…34b2backed Yes | 74c | 39.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6c…a7fdbacked No | 29c | 36.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1a…e7d9backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d06…da8dbacked Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b9…8c61backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 22 minutes?this page
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 19 minutes?No won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 20 minutes?Yes won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?Yes won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 23 minutes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.