Music · resolved market
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 23 minutes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1368ec135429bbbe71ca90dff89dde234d06d8da407d9c382dc23a5f4256c22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6101…f4bebacked No | 8c | 3,726$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 12c | 3,228$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.11 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd048…8155backed No | 11c | 2,100$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 7c | 1,526$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 12c | 1,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -82%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 7c | 655.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 617.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…8304backed No | 5c | 517.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b9…7d50backed No | 10c | 510.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf302…e00abacked No | 10c | 505.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 16c | 478$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed No | 14c | 458.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…71ffbacked No | 8c | 401.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 11c | 387.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 13c | 381.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 7c | 368.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…eb0abacked No | 8c | 358.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 19c | 275$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a5…8805backed No | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 16c | 249.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 230.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 16c | 222$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e4…9b86backed No | 8c | 185.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed No | 11c | 176.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…6c6bbacked No | 12c | 128.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 23 minutes?this page
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 19 minutes?No won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 20 minutes?Yes won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?Yes won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 22 minutes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.