Champions League · resolved market
Will Palmeiras win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58a6331f3d1d93ae204d90d5dfc0932b9a545a5cae5e3177b5ac25f32911eba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,237$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 75c | 3,673$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.54 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 57c | 2,830$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.61 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 38c | 2,644$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.39 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 64c | 2,297$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.27 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 54c | 1,873$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.33 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 47c | 1,649$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.85 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…36d9backed Yes | 36c | 1,591$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 48c | 1,272$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.34 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 79c | 1,125$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 36c | 1,022$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.32 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 31c | 810.28$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.09 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 39c | 717.37$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.96 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 46c | 550.42$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.72 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 60c | 525.37$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.58 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 25c | 508.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 56c | 508.93$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.07 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…b783backed No | 64c | 435.99$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.39 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 64c | 375$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 78c | 340.67$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 56c | 318.18$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.18 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed No | 63c | 277.18$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…7a4abacked No | 63c | 263.38$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 248$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 20c | 224$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 220.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.27 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…4b19backed No | 64c | 219.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 78c | 216.72$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 54c | 177$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…13d1backed Yes | 57c | 175.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 63c | 163.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 41c | 161.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.36 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 38c | 151.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 37c | 136$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 59c | 128.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 45c | 124.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…8316backed No | 27c | 112.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 78c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 58c | 100.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…18a5backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked No | 20c | 95.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…51f3backed Yes | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 54c | 86.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Yes | 42c | 74.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…c096backed Yes | 64c | 70.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…eda8backed Yes | 46c | 65.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 63c | 61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5627…577bbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 51c | 51.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1b66backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…fdd1backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 46c | 43.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…e13ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7207…4e02backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…2173backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…851fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palmeiras win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will Al Ahly win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will Inter Miami CF win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.