Champions League · resolved market
Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad14874c4df52fa96ff603c44537630e4b96df4d3354de9aaf906b4df5bb6e8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $184,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc210…4666backed Yes | 40c | 54,456$21,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,782.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf187…16c0backed No | 60c | 54,456$32,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,782.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x465f…56b5backed Yes | 41c | 31,687$12,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,991.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…c932backed No | 59c | 31,687$18,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,991.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.97 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 59c | 3,023$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.43 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 58c | 1,718$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.57 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Yes | 42c | 666.67$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 59c | 558$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.52 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 59c | 288.14$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.88 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 41c | 285.55$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 58c | 247.96$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…13d1backed Yes | 42c | 239.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked No | 63c | 209.04$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…fcb3backed Yes | 42c | 197.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 59c | 197.02$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 59c | 173.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked No | 66c | 152.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 42c | 151.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 145.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a63ebacked Yes | 42c | 143.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 42c | 127.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c1…0217backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 58c | 119.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d92…52d1backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 38c | 107.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…18a5backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 40c | 99.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…51f3backed Yes | 44c | 91.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 59c | 89.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…af66backed Yes | 40c | 87.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…4b19backed No | 59c | 78.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 56c | 77.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 40c | 75.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2991…d473backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…eda8backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…28ebbacked Yes | 41c | 72.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…75b3backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…ee21backed No | 60c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 40c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Yes | 33c | 55.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9b…1b20backed Yes | 42c | 55.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 155 | 38.1%59 W · 96 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x112d…86b2backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 42c | 47.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…bf65backed Yes | 42c | 47.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74c2…b91cbacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 45c | 42.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093c…681dbacked Yes | 42c | 37.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ba…f6a8backed No | 59c | 35.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f6…0e7ebacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7893…f80ebacked Yes | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2511…8bc4backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…f9b4backed Yes | 38c | 29.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…541dbacked Yes | 44c | 28.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb825…7aa8backed Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491e…edf2backed No | 60c | 27.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…eaf0backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a72…61a5backed Yes | 42c | 25.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b7…eb22backed Yes | 40c | 25.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…8fe0backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…f076backed No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed No | 76c | 22.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b83…d00abacked No | 59c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…ad1cbacked No | 60c | 20.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…f4c6backed No | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will Al Ahly win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will Inter Miami CF win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will Palmeiras win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.