TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6a8e…c096

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
90
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Movies, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2025, EDT3548.6%17 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG beat Real Madrid in Regulation Time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.01
FIFA Club World Cup: Real Madrid vs. Dortmund (To Advance) backed Real Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$16.82
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Bayern (To Advance) backed PSG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$23.67
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Al Hilal (To Advance)backed Al Hilal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
FIFA Club World Cup: Dortmund vs. Monterrey (To Advance) backed Dortmund · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$17.14
FIFA Club World Cup: Inter Milan vs. Fluminense (To Advance)backed Inter Milan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
FIFA Club World Cup: Flamengo vs. Bayern Munich (To Advance)backed Bayern Munich · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+34.3%+$10.36
FIFA Club World Cup: Benfica vs. Chelsea (To Advance)backed Chelsea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$22.31
FIFA Club World Cup: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo (To Advance)backed Palmeiras · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+67.5%+$13.5
Will Manchester City win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Will Internazionale win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+63.1%+$44.81
Will Borussia Dortmund win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+56.1%+$33.69
Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$57
Will Benfica beat Bayern Munich?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.07
Will Palmeiras win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+55.4%+$25.19
Will Palmeiras beat Inter Miami?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Atlético Madrid beat Botafogo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.51
Will RB Salzburg beat Al Hilal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Al Hilal beat RB Salzburg?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$24.56
Will River Plate beat Monterrey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.13
Will Fluminense beat Ulsan Hyundai?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+52.8%+$19.07
Will Inter Milan beat Urawa Red Diamonds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$6.67
Will Borussia Dortmund beat Mamelodi Sundowns?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$8.94
Will Chelsea win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Esperance Sportive beat LAFC?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.25
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$180.74
Will Aryna Sabalenka win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Wimbledon: Swiatek vs. Samsonova (W) backed Swiatek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$4.32
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$117.39
French Open: Alcaraz vs. Sinner backed Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+100%+$18.57
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 French Open? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
French Open: Musetti vs. Alcarazbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
French Open: Sabalenka vs. Swiatekbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$40.95
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
French Open: Zverev vs. Djokovicbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$155.07
French Open: Keys vs. Gauff backed Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT+36.4%+$47.11
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 27-29 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+82.5%+$15.41
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 24-26 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.76
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$55.79
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.13
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.95
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 47% and 49% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.2
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+499.1%+$1,199.01
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
All 9 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+242.9%+$213.17
Dodgers vs. Royalsbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.46
Dodgers vs. Rockiesbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+37%+$7.4
All 3 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+109.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+299.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$307.64
UEFA Nations League: Germany vs. Portugal (To Advance)backed Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+192.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+192.6%+$138.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump x Xi talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+43.5%+$21.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$43.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Abby vs. RoRobacked RoRo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.31
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.