Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64634593ef17060aae89fa9c0bdbbd0bb4e9a2eab0b3f38551a2786d34c7c956
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $596,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $712,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $596,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 384 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 1c | 25,146$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.89 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 30c | 23,230$7,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,222.35 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 8c | 17,555$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.85 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 1c | 15,136$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.64 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed No | 71c | 12,000$8,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,520 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…e33fbacked No | 39c | 11,000$4,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,238.31 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 10,992$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.04 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 41c | 10,340$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,240.35 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 0c | 10,004$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…74aabacked No | 25c | 8,567$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…d789backed No | 50c | 8,302$4,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,168.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed No | 1c | 7,500$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…bdf4backed No | 37c | 6,943$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,595.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 3c | 6,795$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.11 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 3c | 6,403$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.62 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 19c | 4,574$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.77 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 4,571$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed No | 2c | 4,256$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5448…a96abacked No | 61c | 4,112$2,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 46c | 4,051$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,189.81 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 68c | 3,994$2,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.93 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…913ebacked Yes | 47c | 3,929$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 65c | 3,866$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,524.92 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 72c | 3,835$2,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.16 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 45c | 3,794$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.22 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 64c | 3,776$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.95 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…28fcbacked No | 62c | 3,223$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed No | 2c | 3,216$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 8c | 3,194$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.13 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 65c | 3,174$2,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 53c | 3,112$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.86 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…515ebacked No | 6c | 2,813$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…6225backed No | 1c | 2,804$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad35…c926backed No | 33c | 2,510$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 34c | 2,448$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.12 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked No | 64c | 2,437$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 65c | 2,284$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.19 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…bb5abacked No | 32c | 2,171$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 39c | 2,076$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.03 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 45c | 1,960$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.38 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…65e2backed No | 59c | 1,934$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…8d7dbacked No | 24c | 1,853$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked No | 1c | 1,750$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 71c | 1,706$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.65 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 44c | 1,700$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.89 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…0299backed Yes | 44c | 1,636$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 66c | 1,594$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.67 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 47c | 1,580$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 72c | 1,555$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.48 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 62c | 1,496$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.39 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 4c | 1,485$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 73c | 1,434$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.97 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 62c | 1,432$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.67 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 49c | 1,393$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.8 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdc…0771backed No | 75c | 1,334$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60d…57bfbacked No | 24c | 1,302$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 64c | 1,293$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.54 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d6…d67abacked No | 7c | 1,275$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 1,255$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.83 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 71c | 1,237$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.52 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 67c | 1,224$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.49 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.5wins | -0.45per pick | 55cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed No | 36c | 1,214$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.49 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…8c87backed Yes | 41c | 1,208$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…994dbacked No | 1c | 1,190$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 50c | 1,119$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.32 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…36afbacked Yes | 30c | 1,096$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 68c | 1,090$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe852…dc76backed No | 31c | 1,021$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 25c | 1,016$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.94 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a53…7f24backed Yes | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 31c | 999.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.99 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed No | 2c | 935.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd313…a320backed Yes | 64c | 932.37$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 61c | 902.93$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.81 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…15bcbacked Yes | 46c | 872.07$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…b7a6backed No | 45c | 869.3$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…4660backed Yes | 53c | 847.3$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.3 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 36c | 824.38$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…7fb5backed No | 47c | 800$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.89 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 68c | 748.91$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.91 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed No | 68c | 734.69$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…9542backed Yes | 47c | 725.36$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.61 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked No | 13c | 719.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 67c | 715.7$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.06 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 19c | 700$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 699.99$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed No | 15c | 691.81$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 7c | 681.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed No | 65c | 671$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.2 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 71c | 666$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.86 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11e…2230backed No | 45c | 652.63$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…c544backed No | 75c | 639.74$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc085…82fabacked Yes | 48c | 628.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.79 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.