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Tennis · resolved market

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,113,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,196,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,113,394 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15e0…8d86backed No42c565,845$235,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235,134.612030%6 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47b1…1306backed Yes74c174,926$128,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,014.034341.9%18 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Yes51c123,025$62,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,333.032347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked No50c73,769$36,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,884.491225%3 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-58.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb75…0252backed No56c73,047$40,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,895.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes49c67,883$33,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,752.24040%16 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed No50c64,896$32,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,361.4416242%68 W · 94 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed No70c62,408$43,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,600.552751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+41.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff51…ced1backed Yes36c57,219$20,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,620.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f5f…9069backed No64c57,219$36,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,620.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes49c53,521$26,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,279.473458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes72c53,294$38,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,937.55666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes49c53,228$26,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,097.832714.8%4 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2cd…9ad1backed No66c51,948$34,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,285.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59fc…ca0fbacked Yes34c51,948$17,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,285.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No51c48,966$24,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,972.930%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf892…7f58backed No51c48,898$24,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,729.221127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-52.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x838c…5c82backed Yes47c48,721$22,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,987.56944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba4e…44a1backed Yes45c39,468$17,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,707.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab3…e967backed No55c39,468$21,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,707.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked No50c37,431$18,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,715.52937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6cc…b1dcbacked No55c37,209$20,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,464.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94e0…2393backed Yes45c37,209$16,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,464.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7263…f2d7backed No66c35,118$23,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,177.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1637…9042backed Yes34c35,118$11,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,177.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5992…c50cbacked Yes36c34,377$12,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,001.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf030…e725backed No64c34,377$22,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,001.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…a78ebacked Yes41c32,545$13,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,201.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…e469backed No59c32,545$19,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,201.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Yes43c32,381$13,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,426.623268.8%22 W · 10 L+6.5wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No51c30,621$15,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,530.559137.4%34 W · 57 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8806…6a9bbacked No50c30,000$14,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,950.091844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e2…ea00backed Yes38c29,711$11,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,420.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45fc…2bf4backed No62c29,711$18,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,420.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3775…6a6abacked Yes45c29,167$13,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,041.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda24…1975backed No55c29,167$16,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,041.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe86e…dab1backed No56c28,658$16,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,048.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032f…4679backed Yes44c28,658$12,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,048.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Yes48c27,010$13,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,935.3414345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked No53c25,782$13,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,685.22757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98b1…d855backed Yes50c25,070$12,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,586.622045%9 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x884c…d789backed Yes50c19,883$9,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,887.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Yes61c19,385$11,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,581.423655.6%20 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Yes47c18,947$8,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,957.12326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No51c17,931$9,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,064.55438.9%21 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed No48c17,902$8,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,638.4528043.2%121 W · 159 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No62c15,929$9,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,812.591225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b9…95fabacked Yes32c15,691$4,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,692.89933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No66c14,855$9,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,846.271,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Yes49c13,195$6,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,751.044744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes47c12,837$6,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,774.221040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes28c12,010$3,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,664.74580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+119.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc460…80c0backed No52c11,795$6,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,075.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed No49c11,397$5,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,614.752725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Yes58c11,289$6,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,732.211656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes46c11,202$5,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,074.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No51c10,953$5,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,539.535253.8%28 W · 24 L+7.3wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+60.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6149…dacfbacked No60c10,799$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5001250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Yes75c10,770$8,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,704.311,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95fa…bf65backed Yes18c10,320$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,470.511833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked No50c10,310$5,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1559652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes32c10,257$3,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,983.383429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8679…4659backed No48c10,016$4,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,808.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Yes5c10,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,5001,20649%591 W · 615 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Yes51c9,900$5,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8512100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Yes42c9,874$4,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,744.6817445.4%79 W · 95 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No53c9,865$5,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,185.443933.3%13 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac1…45dbbacked Yes51c9,805$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,804.56650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98b5…192bbacked Yes50c9,580$4,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,827.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes51c9,075$4,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,470.93641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed No52c9,071$4,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,694.136136.1%22 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes68c8,935$6,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,884.76850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d4f…00d8backed Yes45c8,530$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,680.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No49c8,122$3,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,991.9922344.8%100 W · 123 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No51c8,112$4,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,149.45714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-78.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00017823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd313…a320backed Yes20c7,915$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,355.07862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+50%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No61c7,800$4,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,779.1510046%46 W · 54 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc12…ce48backed Yes32c7,132$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,856.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc68…8662backed Yes51c7,106$3,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,481.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3693…d79ebacked Yes51c7,000$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,430475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Yes50c6,755$3,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,410.393158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked No65c6,537$4,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,252.6160%0 W · 6 L-3.4wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked Yes16c6,357$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,357.098831.8%28 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes51c6,347$3,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,102.2260753.7%326 W · 281 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes47c6,177$2,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,276.731353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Yes34c6,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,960955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+58.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked No50c5,958$2,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,995.352759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Yes52c5,861$3,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,823.5137540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes54c5,739$3,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,618.681225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked No49c5,383$2,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,663.8213934.5%48 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf37b…da7abacked Yes17c5,300$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,399.77333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+96.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes50c5,230$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,630.334555.6%25 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Yes50c5,178$2,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,588.78850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes42c5,101$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,980.364047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e6…9363backed Yes47c5,005$2,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,653.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb6…9452backed Yes32c5,000$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.91330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cfc…b035backed Yes35c5,000$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2501118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe324…9189backed No51c4,828$2,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,462.5320664.1%132 W · 74 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc16e…4076backed Yes22c4,803$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,745.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+223.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.