TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,597
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,597 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a61…af24backed No12c5,213$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.62254.5%12 W · 10 L+6.4wins+0.29per pick26cpaid+157.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4392…68c3backed Yes66c4,688$3,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No23c4,072$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.882161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e6a…bee7backed Yes70c3,000$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+97.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No37c2,915$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.382015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df6…a362backed Yes75c2,660$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed No25c2,459$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x268b…024fbacked Yes67c2,255$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.22540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8af…04e7backed Yes52c2,157$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes60c2,021$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes65c1,865$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+56.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a67…2f1dbacked Yes35c1,736$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+85.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No8c1,706$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.89175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid+194.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No8c1,706$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.892114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25db…2353backed Yes18c1,596$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+173.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5637…618fbacked No34c1,576$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked No5c1,271$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes71c1,229$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.66520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-71.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes66c1,147$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.716334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Yes66c962.94$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.87837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fee…0402backed Yes60c894.23$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.35450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+66.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No37c893.67$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.583026.7%8 W · 22 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-23.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed No28c851.79$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…3186backed No48c850$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ef…1e04backed No39c814.71$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.32100%0 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd503…4542backed Yes62c810.48$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes61c803.59$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.84378.1%3 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c9b…49cabacked Yes67c800.55$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+141.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ba…a59dbacked Yes63c790.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+116.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes67c785.09$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.1322640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Yes67c751.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc59f…c364backed Yes61c676.6$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No55c603.51$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.771963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+52.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaade…71f1backed No44c562.78$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+213.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2711…cd8bbacked Yes66c544.66$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb4…7124backed Yes6c531.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.27450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+427.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes6c495.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.674022.5%9 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes8c475.2$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.413923.1%9 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98f…6a3fbacked Yes65c470.55$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Yes70c461.22$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf882…e1ffbacked Yes66c452.02$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62b7…707bbacked Yes20c451.56$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+65.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x920a…cb78backed No61c445.61$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.05714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcd…df2abacked Yes7c442.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.08425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+268.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No26c435.73$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.265944.1%26 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb67…aa22backed Yes39c433.54$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+90.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes64c432.74$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.3319939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4162…d199backed Yes70c430.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb413…d085backed Yes33c422.15$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes6c416.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+732.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes6c414.87$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.87837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+167.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cff…eb33backed Yes65c413.83$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba15…c86bbacked Yes71c409.96$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c02…e27cbacked Yes10c402.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+405.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed No30c379.61$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes64c374$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes6c334.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.97633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+215.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No32c328.94$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2110517.1%18 W · 87 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes66c307.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.192544%11 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf936…f310backed Yes64c299.99$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b22…acb2backed Yes67c298.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f7a…d7ccbacked Yes70c286.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.01520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-71.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a71…0f0fbacked Yes62c280.8$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b40…6ec9backed Yes67c262.01$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ab…07edbacked Yes33c256.07$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecef…b593backed Yes76c252.95$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.96580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9983…4889backed Yes67c250$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ac…ba11backed Yes6c248$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.38560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+359%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc6b…afc9backed Yes61c240.83$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce8e…923fbacked Yes67c234.26$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes57c232.66$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.563026.7%8 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes6c230.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.771030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+103.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f6…a3f4backed No60c230.32$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes21c216.57$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.15219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick3cpaid-63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54f0…8a13backed Yes44c202.74$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81f1…2287backed Yes66c202$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.81553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Yes60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed No33c196.06$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.11333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No33c195.28$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.371315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9019…42e0backed Yes65c194.35$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb011…2d13backed Yes52c192.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ddd…722dbacked Yes63c191.88$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e25…7a93backed Yes65c188.56$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes22c188.34$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+146.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f22…be14backed Yes70c186.75$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…1f07backed Yes65c166.07$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5896…49aebacked Yes64c165.54$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x217c…e3bfbacked Yes64c156.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf5f…f981backed Yes64c155.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf12f…acdfbacked Yes62c154.29$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef2…bc22backed Yes66c151.85$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6b…56e6backed Yes69c151.52$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2c…b6ebbacked Yes30c151.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14c0…28f4backed Yes41c146.08$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+238.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ea7…8ff7backed Yes68c146.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac9e…a350backed No73c145.68$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.13450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79e8…1028backed Yes65c144.03$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.75333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes61c140$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…9a71backed Yes61c140$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.