Music · resolved market
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 40 and 50 years in prison?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf89501381cb9e67668ecebe52a53ba18c9239bc9c367704a7ab9a1b0ec143d84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d8c…82a0backed Yes | 30c | 15,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…5c51backed No | 70c | 15,000$10,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,673$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…b59bbacked Yes | 2c | 885.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 494.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa116…6f3bbacked Yes | 6c | 341.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 6c | 209.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…44d8backed Yes | 11c | 178.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb508…6580backed Yes | 12c | 172.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 10c | 169.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…6e47backed Yes | 33c | 61.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 40 and 50 years in prison?this page
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 30 and 40 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?Yes won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to more than 50 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.