TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,283 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x920a…cb78backed Yes17c8,590$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.51714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes8c3,500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes6c2,332$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.92175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid+194.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes17c2,258$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.962015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes19c2,222$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes19c1,959$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.653026.7%8 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefa4…5bc6backed Yes22c1,900$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes21c1,889$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.17520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-71.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes17c1,533$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.53757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+74.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a67…2f1dbacked Yes13c1,389$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+85.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fee…0402backed Yes19c1,358$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.95450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+66.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No79c1,303$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.12161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e9c…1115backed Yes24c1,104$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff00…c146backed Yes19c1,088$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked No78c984.17$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes16c874$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.842114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…8734backed Yes29c814.8$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes7c799.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544022.5%9 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No68c789.94$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.031040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes9c690.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.592035%7 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba15…c86bbacked Yes18c557.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2279…d2f8backed Yes19c523.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68f6…7742backed Yes18c504.4$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53cb…fc91backed Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes16c494.47$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ec…b08abacked Yes24c463.87$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b2…26b0backed Yes14c452.19$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c9b…49cabacked Yes19c450$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+141.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7110…e1b5backed Yes62c448.85$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No35c421.24$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.921656.3%9 W · 7 L+5.6wins+0.35per pick21cpaid+237.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x107c…5f0fbacked Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+69.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8be4…58d9backed Yes19c395.86$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes20c348.9$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1410517.1%18 W · 87 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8d3…69f9backed Yes46c330$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x268b…024fbacked Yes17c319.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7613…4743backed Yes22c318.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019a…7df0backed Yes24c316.37$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes27c312.24$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.811414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-65%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No31c302.82$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.194629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c02…e27cbacked Yes20c302.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+405.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9596…b1e4backed Yes19c299.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes67c299.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb51a…2584backed Yes25c296.4$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62b7…707bbacked Yes19c295.63$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+65.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes13c276.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+167.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes19c264.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2789…96a2backed Yes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c5e…1d41backed Yes20c254.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac9e…a350backed No70c252.46$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.71450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc2…af19backed Yes29c252.14$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes18c250$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x735b…4c25backed Yes18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No69c220.63$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.371154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No29c214.23$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.765944.1%26 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7caf…19d2backed Yes12c201.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+77.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb72c…653ebacked Yes43c196.16$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7a4c…d411backed Yes19c189.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda23…080ebacked Yes59c186.09$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10940%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6677…4ea3backed Yes54c184.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No60c181.01$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7324732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781e…2484backed Yes59c180.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…9a43backed Yes29c180.79$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes19c179.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.573026.7%8 W · 22 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-23.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc682…624bbacked Yes8c167$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f22…be14backed Yes69c164.5$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.63450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb3…2bd4backed Yes31c163.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x725f…8448backed Yes25c162.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e03…dd32backed Yes19c157.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes48c157.25$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5dd…1f26backed Yes23c155.07$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes23c153.59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0ba…8497backed Yes26c151.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa43c…563ebacked Yes21c151.02$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes21c150$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No35c145.81$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.31742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a71…0f0fbacked Yes31c144$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb4…7124backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+427.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3106…fb6ebacked Yes26c142.21$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked No55c140.3$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes25c139.16$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.252343.5%10 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick22cpaid+123.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x53a8…4b54backed Yes18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79e8…1028backed Yes17c135.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Yes74c135.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27b8…b68cbacked No40c132.56$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+147.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes17c129.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.281315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77cc…76f5backed Yes8c126.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7af…facfbacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8b…c94dbacked Yes21c123.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x064c…2de1backed No78c123.72$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.63540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-46.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ed3…16cabacked Yes20c122.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42544%11 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes13c119.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.55825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes15c119$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.971910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No64c116.71$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.156240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc969…ab6ebacked Yes22c114.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed Yes22c112.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-75.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5117…49b3backed Yes20c111.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5896…49aebacked Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc994…1525backed Yes69c111$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.