Music · resolved market
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47e1784c27c29190b65390649639cfbcb719089cf9d0a68251f14b6528c53e49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x920a…cb78backed Yes | 17c | 8,590$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 8c | 3,500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 6c | 2,332$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,258$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.96 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 19c | 2,222$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,959$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.65 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa4…5bc6backed Yes | 22c | 1,900$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 21c | 1,889$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 17c | 1,533$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…2f1dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,389$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…0402backed Yes | 19c | 1,358$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 79c | 1,303$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 24c | 1,104$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff00…c146backed Yes | 19c | 1,088$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 78c | 984.17$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 16c | 874$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…8734backed Yes | 29c | 814.8$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 799.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 68c | 789.94$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 9c | 690.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba15…c86bbacked Yes | 18c | 557.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2279…d2f8backed Yes | 19c | 523.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Yes | 18c | 504.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 16c | 494.47$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…b08abacked Yes | 24c | 463.87$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…26b0backed Yes | 14c | 452.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…49cabacked Yes | 19c | 450$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +141.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7110…e1b5backed Yes | 62c | 448.85$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 35c | 421.24$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.35per pick | 21cpaid | +237.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…5f0fbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…58d9backed Yes | 19c | 395.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 348.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…69f9backed Yes | 46c | 330$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…024fbacked Yes | 17c | 319.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…4743backed Yes | 22c | 318.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed Yes | 24c | 316.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 27c | 312.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 302.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.19 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c02…e27cbacked Yes | 20c | 302.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +405.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed Yes | 19c | 299.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 67c | 299.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…2584backed Yes | 25c | 296.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…707bbacked Yes | 19c | 295.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 13c | 276.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +167.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 19c | 264.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2789…96a2backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…1d41backed Yes | 20c | 254.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…a350backed No | 70c | 252.46$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc2…af19backed Yes | 29c | 252.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735b…4c25backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 69c | 220.63$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 29c | 214.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.76 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…19d2backed Yes | 12c | 201.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 43c | 196.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…d411backed Yes | 19c | 189.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked Yes | 59c | 186.09$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6677…4ea3backed Yes | 54c | 184.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 181.01$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Yes | 59c | 180.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed Yes | 29c | 180.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 19c | 179.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…624bbacked Yes | 8c | 167$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f22…be14backed Yes | 69c | 164.5$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…2bd4backed Yes | 31c | 163.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…8448backed Yes | 25c | 162.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…dd32backed Yes | 19c | 157.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 48c | 157.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…1f26backed Yes | 23c | 155.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 23c | 153.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Yes | 26c | 151.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43c…563ebacked Yes | 21c | 151.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 35c | 145.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…0f0fbacked Yes | 31c | 144$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…7124backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +427.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…fb6ebacked Yes | 26c | 142.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 55c | 140.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 139.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…4b54backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e8…1028backed Yes | 17c | 135.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…fa05backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 40c | 132.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 17c | 129.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77cc…76f5backed Yes | 8c | 126.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…facfbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…c94dbacked Yes | 21c | 123.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 78c | 123.72$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed3…16cabacked Yes | 20c | 122.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 13c | 119.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 15c | 119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 64c | 116.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…ab6ebacked Yes | 22c | 114.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 22c | 112.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 20c | 111.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5896…49aebacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…1525backed Yes | 69c | 111$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?this page
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 30 and 40 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 40 and 50 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?Yes won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to more than 50 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.