Music · resolved market
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2017298563c79b163c899ee95b8fd8b68f52292995e5149f50f0bd4695f64468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 15,117$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…cb78backed Yes | 2c | 5,432$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764d…15aebacked Yes | 9c | 4,597$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,960$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.72 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,229$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 4c | 2,935$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…48b7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed Yes | 3c | 1,981$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 41c | 1,946$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +6.4wins | +0.29per pick | 26cpaid | +157.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 1,938$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,818$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…24e0backed Yes | 6c | 1,651$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…71e0backed Yes | 9c | 1,563$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 41c | 1,462$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.58 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.7wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +126%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…0402backed Yes | 3c | 1,352$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…26b0backed Yes | 21c | 1,280$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77be…1969backed Yes | 4c | 1,271$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa4…5bc6backed Yes | 4c | 1,236$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b534backed Yes | 4c | 1,207$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,206$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff4…2a59backed Yes | 6c | 1,147$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf927…9dd2backed Yes | 6c | 1,145$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff00…c146backed Yes | 14c | 1,010$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Yes | 3c | 995.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 988.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…c94dbacked Yes | 5c | 752.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3317…03d4backed Yes | 1c | 704.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 4c | 674.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…e2efbacked Yes | 8c | 656.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…58d9backed Yes | 5c | 604.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 562.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Yes | 4c | 531.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 76c | 524.64$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7110…e1b5backed Yes | 8c | 508.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 70c | 469.29$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…dce0backed Yes | 5c | 401.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1c…9faebacked Yes | 8c | 399.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 8c | 373.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…facfbacked Yes | 5c | 368.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…8734backed Yes | 5c | 363.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 4c | 359.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…ce1ebacked Yes | 7c | 354.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 75c | 352$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 74c | 349$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 15c | 340$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…be5ebacked Yes | 4c | 337.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae64…ea99backed Yes | 4c | 333.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…9110backed Yes | 6c | 312.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…d085backed Yes | 29c | 311.3$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1817…4bfcbacked Yes | 3c | 305.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…fb6ebacked Yes | 4c | 290.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…1f26backed Yes | 4c | 288.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked Yes | 8c | 274.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 5c | 258.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 19c | 255$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 5c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa069…1e59backed Yes | 5c | 247.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2279…d2f8backed Yes | 8c | 240.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…3244backed Yes | 4c | 240$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…fea9backed Yes | 9c | 226.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04df…642ebacked Yes | 51c | 195.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +80%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 191.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 11c | 189.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc829…170dbacked Yes | 6c | 180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked Yes | 50c | 176.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 50c | 171.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +382.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…66fbbacked Yes | 59c | 170.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 157.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfca5…701abacked Yes | 18c | 122.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 46c | 110.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…3b02backed Yes | 10c | 107.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…b239backed Yes | 12c | 103.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…6f56backed Yes | 12c | 95.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5448…c169backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…26abbacked Yes | 15c | 65.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 63c | 51.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…900abacked Yes | 46c | 43.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1260…410abacked Yes | 47c | 42.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f8…4974backed Yes | 48c | 41.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?this page
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 30 and 40 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 40 and 50 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?Yes won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to more than 50 years in prison?No won
- Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.