TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$327,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$274,699

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf597…abbcbacked Yes6c24,812$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,435.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57e9…12ebbacked Yes6c11,359$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a52…cecebacked Yes3c10,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes11c8,831$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.11533.8%2 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes9c7,623$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.552015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8639…89a2backed Yes3c6,157$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes12c5,893$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.692035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf68…3fdebacked Yes8c5,345$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.88333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes9c4,915$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.473026.7%8 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc33c…ac79backed Yes7c4,326$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes8c4,223$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.064022.5%9 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…09ddbacked Yes5c4,183$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8771…9ed0backed Yes13c3,358$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+105.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes9c3,084$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.45248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-71.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff07…439abacked Yes1c2,850$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes7c2,670$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,626$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.264629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…1115backed Yes17c2,336$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.341421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3835…7f72backed Yes11c2,288$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a7f…4cd8backed Yes7c2,030$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab0…d582backed Yes11c2,002$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920a…cb78backed Yes13c1,973$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a6e…0cf9backed Yes11c1,840$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a9…253fbacked Yes4c1,818$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x565f…215abacked Yes6c1,817$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d13…a252backed Yes12c1,729$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4fdc…0771backed Yes6c1,656$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa999…203cbacked Yes6c1,570$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac9e…a350backed No74c1,528$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes15c1,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8be4…58d9backed Yes6c1,415$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x753d…38a8backed Yes15c1,323$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes3c1,282$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+146.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x25db…2353backed Yes23c1,281$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+173.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes8c1,262$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.195619.6%11 W · 45 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc93a…8b69backed Yes4c1,256$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaece…b156backed Yes8c1,161$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1cd…d1adbacked Yes10c1,121$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f68…1a2dbacked Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes11c1,103$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.891315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f7a…d7ccbacked Yes7c1,102$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-71.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ff…d637backed Yes3c1,065$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x651a…b898backed Yes6c1,001$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes5c1,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Yes7c1,000$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes9c999.98$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b22…cfffbacked Yes7c994.68$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02e8…d63ebacked Yes20c976.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefa4…5bc6backed Yes13c946.17$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc724…c187backed Yes23c924.79$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes10c918.37$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed Yes28c844.11$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf2d…9aecbacked Yes17c812.59$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad8…a395backed Yes12c804.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…b128backed Yes8c729.86$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c722.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.524732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf882…e1ffbacked Yes7c688.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes8c659.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ec9…27b0backed Yes9c641.34$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b41…5dedbacked Yes8c626.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x725f…8448backed Yes7c609.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb07f…4000backed Yes23c595.29$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x186f…8c40backed Yes2c590.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62b7…707bbacked Yes17c589.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+65.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes8c583.63$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.97742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+65.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes13c577.05$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3216334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03e5…e35bbacked Yes20c576.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b99…5534backed Yes4c547.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b67…ad37backed Yes11c546.4$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d1…499ebacked Yes7c533.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c531.96$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9510517.1%18 W · 87 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd53…66eebacked Yes7c521.13$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc050…56acbacked Yes16c520.38$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa116…6f3bbacked Yes19c516.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaabc…a190backed Yes16c511.24$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e6…f634backed Yes7c503.48$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed No79c500$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+95.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x565d…bcf2backed Yes7c499.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes6c494.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71210%0 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd94…b271backed Yes20c494.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb78…3acfbacked Yes10c485.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x271c…af71backed Yes7c484.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56a7…dfb3backed Yes8c483.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…8051backed Yes9c481.95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…3bdfbacked Yes22c462.06$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e2…3427backed Yes11c451.68$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d4e…25a6backed Yes20c410.91$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+232%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…cd12backed Yes6c408.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes6c405.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+167.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32219.5%2 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-85.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf27f…362cbacked Yes15c385.25$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes10c385.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c62…df09backed Yes11c380$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ba…d429backed Yes11c378.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x268b…024fbacked Yes11c365$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.26540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9983…4889backed Yes10c363.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes24c356.9$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.071546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe16d…8734backed Yes11c349.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c63…3facbacked Yes6c344.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.