Chess · resolved market
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e84b9eec9ed75c7396656b46d05e7e93640098ac507b22224008322340ff2a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 1c | 20,790$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed Yes | 29c | 10,890$3,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,142.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 6c | 6,302$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.39 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 47c | 6,280$2,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,920.85 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 12c | 4,805$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.4 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 3c | 3,775$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 41c | 3,581$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…bb91backed Yes | 48c | 3,474$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 17c | 3,313$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 45c | 3,218$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 8c | 3,180$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.03 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 27c | 3,000$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…9217backed Yes | 26c | 2,727$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 37c | 2,348$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 24c | 2,298$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.65 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 16c | 2,236$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.49 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 24c | 2,149$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…31a2backed Yes | 17c | 2,034$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5,506%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 60c | 1,912$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,837$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.16 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 6c | 1,823$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes | 25c | 1,761$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.98 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Yes | 30c | 1,666$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…45e9backed Yes | 27c | 1,637$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…ab03backed Yes | 15c | 1,618$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.17 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes | 9c | 1,531$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 3c | 1,355$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 55c | 1,322$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.68 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 65c | 1,281$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.69 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,233$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 1,229$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.6 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 5c | 1,219$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…e321backed Yes | 4c | 1,218$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 12c | 1,207$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -42%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 1,140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 1,135$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,101$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.2 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe348…ef84backed Yes | 3c | 1,098$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5497backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 16c | 992.71$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.53 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 24c | 989.39$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 21c | 946.86$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Yes | 12c | 935.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes | 4c | 840.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 18c | 800$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 53c | 780.13$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 30c | 773.35$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe3…02ddbacked Yes | 17c | 765.76$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 66c | 726.11$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…d191backed Yes | 9c | 661.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2d…6ae3backed Yes | 20c | 597.67$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 15c | 596.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 18c | 550$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e93…5c57backed Yes | 3c | 533.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…515dbacked Yes | 25c | 518.91$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.42 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes | 32c | 503.01$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed No | 48c | 500$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 42c | 500$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes | 30c | 500$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5a…828bbacked Yes | 45c | 500$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 17c | 481$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 49c | 480$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 27c | 479$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 5c | 449.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…a0dbbacked Yes | 46c | 439.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47f…75efbacked Yes | 3c | 411.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 18c | 400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371f…b7e6backed Yes | 3c | 398.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 14c | 394$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 26c | 389.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…c481backed No | 67c | 388.08$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 46c | 387.23$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 3c | 380$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ad…04a8backed Yes | 18c | 377.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 22c | 375.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xccda…4937backed No | 59c | 371.61$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 41c | 361.6$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…5547backed Yes | 25c | 356.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7d…0bf1backed Yes | 28c | 351.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7976…ce10backed Yes | 28c | 350.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 8c | 349.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0286…eb6cbacked Yes | 29c | 347.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 19c | 334.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 73c | 327.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8550…59bbbacked Yes | 33c | 306.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…96ecbacked Yes | 4c | 304.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 21c | 293.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb44…8023backed Yes | 63c | 279.41$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…cd73backed Yes | 44c | 270.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f8…ffe4backed Yes | 17c | 263.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 10c | 259.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 42c | 240.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 13c | 231.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 32c | 220$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 6c | 218$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?this page
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?Yes won
- Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.