Chess · resolved market
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6c463d4559e8e157aa92ff2960a34e72c32d9ca0165cbd536dca74cfcbdaa00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 14c | 12,619$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…a0a6backed Yes | 2c | 9,635$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 3c | 9,293$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 2c | 6,289$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.59 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 3c | 5,327$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.6 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 18c | 4,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.99 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 5c | 3,648$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.08 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 10c | 3,579$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8f…a730backed Yes | 17c | 3,575$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 4c | 3,222$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 14c | 2,819$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.95 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,598$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +71%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 16c | 2,198$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…046ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,182$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,145$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 2c | 2,104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,049$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Yes | 3c | 1,959$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 8c | 1,900$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 11c | 1,833$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 9c | 1,760$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 7c | 1,752$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.11 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…45e9backed Yes | 6c | 1,732$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,726$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,633$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 15c | 1,366$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.37 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 10c | 1,332$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.32 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…e321backed Yes | 7c | 1,302$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 1,285$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 20c | 1,251$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 8c | 1,192$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,182$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…7201backed Yes | 26c | 1,164$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,113$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 9c | 1,082$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -42%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2d…6ae3backed Yes | 16c | 1,061$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes | 5c | 1,038$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…d191backed Yes | 15c | 1,023$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…bd0ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd21a…51cbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 14c | 972$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed Yes | 11c | 931.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 821.6$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Yes | 14c | 731.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked Yes | 14c | 694.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe3…02ddbacked Yes | 21c | 629.27$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 4c | 623.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 8c | 617$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 3c | 572$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…8d45backed Yes | 14c | 515.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 27c | 500$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb0…55b7backed Yes | 3c | 493.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 11c | 490.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 460.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dd…3046backed Yes | 25c | 412.38$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 4c | 399.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…96ecbacked Yes | 4c | 390.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…2e4bbacked Yes | 28c | 384.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…f806backed Yes | 4c | 360$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f22cbacked Yes | 11c | 355.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Yes | 10c | 350$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 11c | 349.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 17c | 343.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 7c | 313.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca14…11bebacked Yes | 6c | 304.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48f2…ab87backed Yes | 5c | 300.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…7397backed Yes | 9c | 284.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 12c | 284.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc2…5723backed Yes | 7c | 271.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed No | 80c | 268.83$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f9…eb40backed Yes | 13c | 256.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…265cbacked No | 78c | 248.77$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 23c | 242.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 24c | 236.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe75…b5c0backed Yes | 9c | 231.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62b…afc2backed Yes | 11c | 223.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…515dbacked Yes | 15c | 221.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes | 16c | 220.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked No | 80c | 212.18$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…5990backed Yes | 10c | 208.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…cd73backed Yes | 23c | 206.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…114bbacked Yes | 15c | 197.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf222…9718backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaca…1f3ebacked Yes | 13c | 179.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…baf2backed No | 79c | 175.88$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff60…83c0backed Yes | 22c | 173.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked Yes | 13c | 165$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 12c | 161.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd878…74efbacked Yes | 28c | 161.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff0…f9e0backed No | 79c | 154.55$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 15c | 140.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…8b51backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cc…ed76backed Yes | 22c | 136$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 17c | 131.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed Yes | 15c | 129.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?this page
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?Yes won
- Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.