Chess · resolved market
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcc6447b9b627392477ee096122a34fc1ac6e82e0d7485aace314d788ab8c86b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 2c | 28,128$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -42%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed Yes | 14c | 28,020$3,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,861.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 15c | 6,230$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.2 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 20c | 5,341$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.95 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 16c | 5,099$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.58 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 7c | 4,550$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.52 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 13c | 4,440$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…45e9backed Yes | 14c | 3,522$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 3c | 3,514$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 3c | 3,194$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 4c | 2,531$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…ab03backed Yes | 9c | 2,172$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.18 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 3c | 1,883$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,876$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.32 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 15c | 1,814$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 1c | 1,726$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 10c | 1,450$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccda…4937backed Yes | 22c | 1,359$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,272$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…b4fabacked Yes | 9c | 1,164$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…e321backed Yes | 11c | 1,065$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed Yes | 10c | 1,040$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 16c | 1,040$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 1,012$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…bf23backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x075b…9a8cbacked Yes | 14c | 939.56$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 14c | 817.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes | 16c | 806$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.23 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 16c | 803.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.47 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 7c | 781.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…96ecbacked Yes | 8c | 770.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 13c | 723$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 3c | 688.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 8c | 666.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 13c | 654.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 6c | 640.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf222…9718backed Yes | 10c | 621.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 23c | 618.13$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb26…3ce2backed Yes | 8c | 593.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes | 9c | 581$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…20d8backed Yes | 25c | 571$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…8f48backed Yes | 17c | 565.42$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 25c | 555$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 4c | 550$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 10c | 522.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 17c | 507$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…31a2backed Yes | 19c | 502.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5,506%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…bc0bbacked Yes | 12c | 499.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 16c | 446.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5721…0da3backed Yes | 5c | 431.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…cd73backed Yes | 18c | 418.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Yes | 13c | 410.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 16c | 399.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…c696backed No | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371f…b7e6backed Yes | 17c | 374.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 4c | 366.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 8c | 354.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 21c | 335.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…9f72backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 8c | 324$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…8e18backed Yes | 17c | 297.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 17c | 288.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 20c | 281.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f9…eb40backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 13c | 226.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 28c | 213$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…57ffbacked Yes | 10c | 207.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…515dbacked Yes | 11c | 201.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0b…3fbabacked Yes | 5c | 200.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…114bbacked Yes | 10c | 200.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…a0a6backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…8019backed Yes | 11c | 189$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ea…c24dbacked Yes | 11c | 188.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 7c | 188.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5103…9fdcbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 28c | 175.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 8c | 174.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 19c | 169.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…dbc6backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +5,582.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…fe93backed Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…6002backed Yes | 33c | 147.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…3db1backed Yes | 8c | 139.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…11bdbacked Yes | 8c | 138.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 16c | 132$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked Yes | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked No | 80c | 102.87$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…873fbacked Yes | 11c | 101.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df4…9e57backed Yes | 24c | 83.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc3…6cf3backed Yes | 18c | 83.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes | 17c | 81.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?this page
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?Yes won
- Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.