Chess · resolved market
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c71efed721e4f55f78c17b9b6ec3fee97909a64291c247d39c46d4f0a9f52d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $555,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $608,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $555,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 404 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x470d…c245backed No | 36c | 39,653$14,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,275.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6c…6c77backed Yes | 64c | 39,653$25,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,275.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 54c | 32,469$17,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,877.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 40c | 23,535$9,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,387.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 42c | 15,494$6,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,555.51 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 50c | 13,419$6,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,749.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 60c | 12,164$7,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,820.77 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 9,021$3,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,914.24 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 38c | 8,718$3,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,290.69 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Yes | 76c | 8,574$6,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,027.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 69c | 6,878$4,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,158.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 44c | 6,353$2,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,806.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…45e9backed Yes | 55c | 6,076$3,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,719.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…baf2backed Yes | 67c | 5,873$3,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 45c | 5,698$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,119.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 59c | 5,302$3,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,175.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6f…fe11backed Yes | 42c | 4,793$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,783.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ad…04a8backed Yes | 65c | 4,718$3,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 54c | 4,630$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b702backed Yes | 62c | 4,400$2,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccda…4937backed Yes | 61c | 4,288$2,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 31c | 4,286$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.53 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…31a2backed No | 32c | 4,231$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.69 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5,506%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 44c | 4,164$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,339.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed No | 35c | 4,066$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 24c | 3,704$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…9217backed Yes | 47c | 3,373$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…47d8backed Yes | 61c | 3,320$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 3,200$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.99 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…7cb1backed Yes | 66c | 3,039$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 43c | 2,962$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…919dbacked Yes | 65c | 2,576$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 66c | 2,575$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 42c | 2,545$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.28 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 43c | 2,464$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 66c | 2,175$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…13d1backed Yes | 60c | 2,136$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 62c | 2,031$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,879$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.87 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a3…93babacked No | 40c | 1,872$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked No | 44c | 1,855$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.89 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 50c | 1,797$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 51c | 1,750$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…ab03backed No | 21c | 1,740$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.4 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 45c | 1,640$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed Yes | 50c | 1,569$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 43c | 1,552$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 67c | 1,490$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5246…32a6backed Yes | 60c | 1,473$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 76c | 1,457$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…046ebacked No | 39c | 1,389$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 46c | 1,360$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2d…6ae3backed No | 37c | 1,359$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 40c | 1,355$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.66 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…3fcdbacked Yes | 45c | 1,347$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 49c | 1,347$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.9 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 56c | 1,343$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 37c | 1,318$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 7c | 1,286$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 69c | 1,231$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…a0a6backed No | 9c | 1,222$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 35c | 1,200$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Yes | 44c | 1,130$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 51c | 1,125$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.52 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 74c | 1,124$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed No | 43c | 1,115$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,110$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked No | 46c | 1,102$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 39c | 1,083$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 60c | 1,062$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.98 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…10fabacked Yes | 67c | 1,047$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,022$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac79…e323backed Yes | 57c | 1,014$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 60c | 1,013$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…e4a9backed Yes | 67c | 1,002$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f67…f9e4backed Yes | 61c | 985.03$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2d…673fbacked No | 76c | 964$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b6…007dbacked Yes | 71c | 956.42$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 34c | 874.03$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.38 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 61c | 846.51$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.49 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -42%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…7c09backed Yes | 42c | 843.82$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…3db9backed Yes | 60c | 804.15$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 62c | 801.82$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff0…f9e0backed Yes | 79c | 792.09$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 13c | 768$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 13c | 768$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +294.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked No | 19c | 750.59$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…fd85backed Yes | 74c | 720$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…28e2backed Yes | 60c | 715.48$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 42c | 699.97$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 76c | 693.32$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…d191backed Yes | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed No | 29c | 660.74$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 77c | 659.99$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 27c | 650$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 43c | 645.78$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc580…371ebacked Yes | 66c | 626.02$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?this page
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.