Chess · resolved market
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc21ed4213d7e1ecab06259f023d2ea0d9fa2f39009b0300a7c18710ca16d925d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 2c | 7,740$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.89 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 1c | 5,351$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 4,448$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 11c | 4,143$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.68 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 3c | 3,420$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 2c | 3,333$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 3c | 3,296$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 3c | 3,038$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 4c | 2,877$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 8c | 2,860$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.52 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 1c | 2,383$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 3c | 2,192$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…e321backed Yes | 3c | 2,133$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 8c | 1,873$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,706$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,593$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 5c | 1,333$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,193$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,176$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 5c | 1,083$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,059$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Yes | 14c | 735.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 3c | 649.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…31a2backed Yes | 5c | 579.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5,506%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 3c | 550$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…c749backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 11c | 492.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…515dbacked Yes | 3c | 456.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 2c | 423.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 7c | 420$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 10c | 407.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…b4a4backed Yes | 3c | 363.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 5c | 306.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc580…371ebacked Yes | 12c | 222.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…f915backed Yes | 10c | 202.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 6c | 188.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…d191backed Yes | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 116$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…19d2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?this page
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?Yes won
- Will Wei Yi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.