Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a6adb69595f6af637992ef0e9de9e77e11cd1d47c01cce81a66d68123cc8b90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 9c | 43,281$3,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,710.06 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…c895backed No | 67c | 32,824$21,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,831.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…3cc1backed Yes | 33c | 32,824$10,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,831.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 3c | 26,234$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.91 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 2c | 18,958$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.16 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc372…dda1backed Yes | 1c | 8,380$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 7,027$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 6,334$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 6,201$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd17…b69dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,135$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb45…d6babacked Yes | 4c | 5,695$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf455…0f00backed Yes | 2c | 5,105$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 5c | 3,890$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 1c | 2,910$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…c94fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,406$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…f9e8backed Yes | 2c | 2,350$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 4c | 2,296$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…aaffbacked Yes | 2c | 2,201$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed Yes | 2c | 2,174$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 6c | 1,844$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x006b…7d5fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,801$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,744$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…906fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe607…4f12backed Yes | 4c | 1,483$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 3c | 1,470$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992c…7949backed Yes | 4c | 1,235$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa007…2bd4backed Yes | 3c | 1,089$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 1,070$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…f2bcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,014$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,011$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…7420backed Yes | 2c | 931.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 8c | 904.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…c096backed Yes | 1c | 865.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bb…ee02backed Yes | 3c | 824.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 17c | 808.7$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.99 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ed…96e1backed Yes | 2c | 804.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…094dbacked Yes | 7c | 743.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 743.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x647b…30f1backed Yes | 6c | 697.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…fa51backed Yes | 4c | 691.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked Yes | 4c | 642.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Yes | 4c | 583.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…2698backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…23b7backed Yes | 4c | 454.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6d…3fd7backed Yes | 5c | 427$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 13c | 391.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ef…899abacked Yes | 13c | 356.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…3c2abacked Yes | 15c | 335.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 278.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…544bbacked Yes | 19c | 179.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…5e7fbacked Yes | 10c | 128.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c63…16a9backed Yes | 9c | 122.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…780fbacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 113.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe03b…1007backed Yes | 9c | 105.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 29c | 49.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting?this page
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting?Yes won
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce an increase at the June meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.