Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd0f19ab3df36a9a719d9075ddd86c2fad3ab5790a144a923e08b88301dc78e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $225,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed No | 6c | 17,667$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…81a0backed No | 3c | 10,006$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 9,881$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd176…2537backed No | 2c | 5,307$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 4,198$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…2cd4backed No | 1c | 4,039$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed No | 2c | 3,405$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…bf42backed No | 1c | 3,286$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed No | 1c | 2,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 6c | 1,602$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 1,595$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.84 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 7c | 1,242$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…ee0bbacked No | 5c | 1,175$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 4c | 1,095$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed No | 1c | 1,059$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 77c | 1,038$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.32 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 939.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe638…a296backed No | 1c | 910.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 2c | 810$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…7375backed No | 4c | 766.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…25cbbacked No | 2c | 721.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 17c | 704.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 17c | 673.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.63 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 2c | 643.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 14c | 601$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 5c | 526.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…6645backed Yes | 78c | 374.56$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe607…4f12backed No | 6c | 348.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked No | 5c | 326.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…da7abacked Yes | 80c | 262.65$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 13c | 260.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 78c | 239.6$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 235.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 21c | 141.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 18c | 129.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 15c | 128.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae9…c5f6backed No | 14c | 106.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cc…5e76backed No | 13c | 96.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9a…6e47backed Yes | 73c | 84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4288…8105backed Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting?this page
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce an increase at the June meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.