TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,917
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$149,146

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,917 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x81f9…7dd4backed Yes54c43,623$23,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,397.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x678b…101ebacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes51c6,848$3,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,480.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No46c6,561$3,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,539.175435.2%19 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d9…4d8bbacked No46c4,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.97560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x116f…9210backed No47c3,175$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,670.61616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No46c2,742$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.965147.1%24 W · 27 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+113.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes53c2,011$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.181323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed No47c1,966$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.285232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d18…b702backed Yes55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes52c1,260$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.392853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x64ad…3050backed No44c1,190$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.12626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked No43c1,131$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.07560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked No47c1,040$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7895…f3ffbacked Yes57c1,012$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes33c959.17$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.4140%0 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes51c915.44$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.87128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick35cpaid-87.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes55c818.09$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.423435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No44c739.97$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.96911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-74.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes53c700$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed No47c699.99$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3711428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed No54c654.74$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.827441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ec…9282backed No65c584$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.65540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d02…446abacked Yes53c567.65$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-67.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked No60c567.5$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.945223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb484…341dbacked Yes54c557.96$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x288a…4275backed Yes51c550.28$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.21944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes52c539.99$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.837735.1%27 W · 50 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acd…d85cbacked Yes56c518$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb5…cf53backed Yes55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No44c499.98$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.994746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed No47c499.94$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c6…7961backed Yes55c499.66$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.81110%0 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x975b…149bbacked No45c497.78$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.781376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes52c477.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0933backed Yes50c477.34$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes55c430.19$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.152213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked No49c409.02$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked No49c404.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccc9…7a15backed Yes55c403.5$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.76520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a3…db6ebacked No47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2121241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked No45c400$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked No44c399.99$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.9911539.1%45 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5260…fd71backed Yes53c385.06$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabca…cfd1backed Yes53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes49c355.98$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.196713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95d9…ab03backed Yes48c345$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.22015%3 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+161.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6b6…007dbacked Yes45c342.83$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes54c334.11$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes57c312.07$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.76911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes9c310.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.79358.6%3 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked No48c309.31$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eee…2782backed Yes54c300$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1631050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked No48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes52c295.59$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.322740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bd9…bd75backed No43c288.87$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.93450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+58.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed No46c279.16$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.67119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-80.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0edd…3db1backed No46c268.22$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.071346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe6…7e61backed Yes58c257.95$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b37…c799backed Yes54c257.36$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.551618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…0e4fbacked Yes55c254.55$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes53c249.07$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.01616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed No53c242.17$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes52c237.26$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.612133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked No47c228.3$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3f1…b5ddbacked No45c220$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick27cpaid+77.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No44c220$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1231154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes53c207.19$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.391656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed65…b1b2backed No49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked No50c201.65$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.836820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Yes51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe121…1d13backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…baf2backed Yes53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bee…63f2backed No51c192.9$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes52c191.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes53c191.39$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.81837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No58c191.29$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4332…9052backed Yes52c190.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc580…371ebacked Yes53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc105…1e30backed Yes52c188.19$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x895b…ef4dbacked Yes55c186.75$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce4…e4cfbacked Yes54c185.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f5b…864fbacked Yes55c183.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No46c178.88$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.37933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No46c175.67$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.631136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No47c174.18$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes31c169$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.011757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xca14…11bebacked Yes54c165.16$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901540%6 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+117.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53f9…e920backed Yes51c163.58$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7669…c706backed Yes54c160.66$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6977…19cdbacked Yes52c158.46$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked Yes52c151.14$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes51c139.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3c…5983backed No73c136.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes55c135$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed No49c123.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes58c121$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa3b…0061backed No44c114$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes53c112.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41f…1c5bbacked Yes54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.